In this case study we analyse the tragic flight of an Alouette II SE313B medical evacuation helicopter registration N45VX, which crashed off the coast of Palawan Island in the Philippines on Wednesday 1st March 2023. The helicopter was known locally as the ‘Yellow Bee’.
The helicopter departed from the North Mangsee Island at 08:56 local time, en route to the old Provincial Hospital at Brooke’s Point on Palawan Island. The helicopter was operated by PAMAS, a medical missionary society. On board was Daniel Liu the pilot, Janelle Alder a nurse, a patient and two family members accompanying the patient. The helicopter disappeared at 09:28 local time, whilst over the sea between the islands.
After several days of searching neither the wreck nor any of the five people on that aircraft have been located. On Monday 13th March 2023 we were asked to use our WSPR based technology to help locate the wreckage. We have been in regular contact since then with the search and rescue operation and more recently the underwater sonar search effort.
The calculated crash location is 7.8943°N 117.5165°E, which is 6.26 km south east of the last known point from the pilot’s GPS locator at 7.945990°N 117.493328°E on a bearing of 155.9°T.
This is a tragic accident and our thoughts and prayers are with the families and friends of those who have been lost.
The case study can be downloaded here
Dwayne Harris, the PAMAS director, informs us that they will resume the underwater search with a new boat and equipment on 21st April 2023.
The new boat is better equipped with sonar and magnetometers for the next underwater search.
According to Google Earth the water depth at the calculated crash location is 114 m.
Thank you very much for your work, please keep it up! Also, I think Netflix is just trying to rekindle everyone’s attention. In terms of attracting attention, absurdity is much more effective than seriousness.
@blackdonkey,
Welcome to the blog!
I agree with you that absurdity is more effective than seriousness in terms of attracting attention.
However, we want to attract the right attention in a serious manner. For example, Ocean Infinity see no added value in engaging with the media in speculation, fantasy or conspiracy theories and like myself have declined to participate in many so called documentaries including the Netflix fiasco.
@Richard.
Was there an outcome?
@David,
I have not heard anything from the Philippines.
I have emailed Dwayne Harris the director of PAMAS requesting an update on the underwater search.
the Malaysians definitely had planned this disappearance, a daughter of the plane had received a phone call from her dad who was a passenger on the plane, but couldn’t answer in time, many family members tried ringing their families and calls had connections and a ringtone, the family and friends begged the authorities to trace and take the lead to the connections… and they had turned them down, why? this could have been a safely restored plane instead all these theories and “debris” had been talked about when the Malaysian Airlines didn’t do anything and instead filled their bank account. If debris can wash on shore, then why not one single body or item was recovered… many items would have floated during the first few days of searching on the ocean, and not a single item had been tested or recovered… planes just don’t disappear that is a fact I the legal authorities that made the plane disappear and mock peoples minds. If Titanic had been recovered then how not large pieces of the plane, bodies, and traces of fuel, the plane was in the south china sea tomnod found debris but why the next day does the prime minister in Malaysia make an announcement to make us stop searching in the south china sea?? All members of the authority at the time were paid to keep their mouths shut and family and friends had to pay consequences. all news stations around the world had reported the news, but no country offered for Bejing to use equipment to track phone calls, reporters had been paid money to keep their mouths shut and well Inmarsat… can easily edit a radar read or communication. this story one day must be told, we won’t know what happened until we die and ask god ourselves.
@Maz,
You are not welcome on this blog!
Your comment has nothing to do with the tragic loss of the PAMAS helicopter N45VX.
The mobile phone call received by one of the next of kin has already been explained in previous comments on this website, as a reboot of the provider’s system.
The debris is not “theories”, there are 40 pieces of MH370, which you can hold in your hand. They are real!
MH370 floating debris was adrift in the Indian Ocean for 5 years and still found washed ashore somewhere and reported to the authorities.
Even a weighted body will normally float to the surface after three or four days, exposing it to sea birds and buffeting from the waves. Putrefaction and scavenging creatures will dismember the corpse in a week or two and the bones will sink to the seabed. Dead bodies will not travel the Indian Ocean for several years.
The Titanic sunk in 1912, which is 111 years ago. MH370 disappeared less than 10 years ago. You need a sense of perspective.
You offer no evidence that thousands of government officials and media reporters were paid money to keep silent. You need a sense of reality.
It is not possible to edit radar or Inmarsat satellite data in near real time, when it is distributed in near real time to other databases where we have the database logs and raw data. You need a sense of technology.
You do not have to wait until you die and ask God yourself, you need to do your homework before you comment.
All the data you need can be found on this website.
@All,
David Ferry sent me this morning the following update, which he found in Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/p/Pamas-Mission-Philippine-Adventist-Medical-Aviation-Services-100064770724250/
“Missing Helicopter Update – Monday, May 1, 2023
Yesterday’s search effort by the SSS crew did not uncover the missing helicopter. The hardworking team managed to expand the searched area by 2.2 nm². Including the territory searched on Sunday, they have followed the flight path north from the last GPS ping for six minutes by air, extending one mile on either side of the path.
They investigated over 350 possible hits but found nothing worth further attention. The team reported that “the equipment is returning strong signals” and that they can easily distinguish what they see. They discovered “a wooden boat and associated debris field, two 40ft containers, one 20ft container, and a debris field likely associated with a cable laying operation.” All of these are very distinctive images.
To date, they have searched over 20 nm² and 250 Nm lineal. However, since the total search area is around 500 nm², they have covered only a small portion in reality.
(Note: Pilot Daniel’s GPS was set to send a signal every 10 minutes, so the search is being conducted with that in mind. In other words, the helicopter could have potentially traveled for 10 more minutes in any direction after the last signal was transmitted.)
After consulting with the family of those onboard and with the willingness of the SSS team, we have decided to continue the search for two more days. The next task that the SSS team was scheduled to do has been graciously rescheduled to allow for these additional search days. The hope is to extend further north along the flight path to the possible range of the yellow bee. The crew will refuel, restock provisions, and resume the search around midnight local time. We are grateful for their willingness to keep searching.”
I received the following email on Sunday from Dwayne Harris, the director of the medical missionary society: “I am sorry for taking so long to get back to you. The underwater search didn’t find anything. They did look in the area from your analysis but didn’t see anything. At this point we are going to leave it in God’s hands, we have done what we can and are going to leave things as they are. We will know in heaven what happened even if we don’t figure it out here.”
@All,
The search for the helicopter N45VX conducted by Sea Scan Survey (SSS) covered around 20 nm² (4%) out of around 500 nm², that is estimated as the total search area.
The maximum ground speed of the helicopter is 100 knots and in 10 mins flying time the radius from the last known position is therefore a maximum of 16.7 nmi. This is a circle with an area of 876 nm² and is not just in the direction of flight northwards, but in all directions especially if the helicopter is spinning out of control. A potential search area of 876 nm² reduces the proportion actually searched to only 2.5%.
There were also strong winds at the time of the incident from the North East gusting up to 26 knots from 055°T, which may have blown the helicopter South West from the estimated crash point, making it even more difficult to precisely determine the crash location.
The report states that SSS searched 6 minutes flying time further northwards, which is 10 nmi and 1 nmi either side of the intended flight path. This results in the total search area of 20 nm². This would be 25 runs at 10 nmi per run, which is the 250 nmi lineal that SSS mention. The swath width for each pass is therefore approximately 150 m (75 m either side), whereas the Ocean Infinity swath width was validated at 2,000 m (1,000 m either side) in previous MH370 searches. This indicates the SSS equipment may not have had the capability to cover the wider search area required.
Here is a link to a picture showing the search area (courtesy of PAMAS):
https://www.dropbox.com/s/gtzm10ikqkba1v1/Search%20Area%20Overview.png?dl=0
The picture shows an additional area marked WSPR at the bottom of the screen and off to the right of the main search area. The small WSPR area marked appears to have covered an area northwards from the crash location defined in our report and centred on 7.8943°N 117.5165°E. At the most, Sea Scan Survey (SSS) covered around 2 nm² (10%) of the WSPR search area of 19.6 nm², marked by the red circles with a maximum radius of 2.5 nmi.
Here is a link to a graphic of the WSPR search area superimposed on a Google Earth marking the last known position (LKP), helicopter crash location centre point (H), WSPR search area marked by red circles, as well as the points 10 nmi North and East of the LKP:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5v9t1ex793nbwhx/WSPR%20Search%20Area.png?dl=0
Here is a link to a second picture showing the swath width in the northern part of the search area (courtesy of PAMAS):
https://www.dropbox.com/s/yz9yogh9kuxl95e/Search%20Area%20Detail.png?dl=0
The Sea Scan Survey had 350 hits in just over 20 nm². That represents 17.5 hits per nm². It appears that the sea floor is littered with debris in this area (and probably elsewhere). A number of ships pass between the islands of Borneo and Palawan in this area, but it is not on a major shipping lane or sea route.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/lpio8tdar1ob7fq/Shipping%20Routes%20Marked.png?dl=0
I have agreed with Dwayne Harris, the PAMAS director, to ask Ocean Infinity whether they would be interested in searching the area. I would be asking Ocean Infinity if they would be willing to search free of charge, as PAMAS are a privately funded medical missionary society and not a typical corporate or government customer.
In an earlier email exchange with Dwayne Harris, we stated we are considering the possibility of a rotor failure, where the torque of the main engine is no longer balanced by the rotor for straight flight. The helicopter will spin out of control. We note there was no May Day call. The pilot may well have been following the old adage “aviate, navigate, communicate”, but was busy with aviating.
Dwayne Harris responded: “I have from the beginning thought the most likely thing was a tail rotor failure based on my knowledge of the helicopter and the little bit of experience I had flying it. You wouldn’t be able to control it if that happened as there is no vertical stabilizer on that design. This would all fit into your analysis.”