Ocean Infinity presented a new MH370 underwater search proposal to Anthony Loke, the Malaysian Minister of Transport in Kuala Lumpur on 2nd May 2024. Anthony Loke said that based on discussions held on Thursday, the company had submitted a proposal paper along with evidence and information for examination by the relevant parties under his ministry.
Josh Broussard, the Chief Technology Officer, of Ocean Infinity led the team making the presentation, together with their Commercial Manager.
Pete Foley, the former ATSB search director, also attended the meeting in Malaysia. Pete has been campaigning for a new search for several years and is advising Ocean Infinity on the new search.
Prof. Simon Maskell, from Liverpool University, is a scientific advisor to Ocean Infinity and was also in attendance at the meeting. Simon leads a team investigating the possibility of using WSPR to detect and track aircraft. Simon plans to add the WSPR data to the particle filter developed by the Australian Defence Science and Technology Group (DSTG) described in their book titled “Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370” in order to refine the new MH370 search area.
The new search for MH370 is expected to start in November 2024. Anthony Loke said the whole process of examining the new proposal, including cabinet approval would take about three months. Two representatives of the Association for Families of the Passengers and Crew on board MH370 also attended the meeting. The Association welcomed the new proposal and thanked everyone involved.
@All,
Several media have reported that Malaysia has agreed in principle to a new search for MH370.
Malaysia has concluded the proposal from Ocean Infinity to restart the underwater search for MH370 is ‘credible’. However negotiations with Ocean Infinity have yet to be finalised.
The search will take place between November 2024 and March 2025. The search is on a ‘no find, no fee’ basis as expected. In the event that MH370 is found, then a fee of $70M is payable.
We are expecting further details shortly.
Hi Richard
Many thanks for all of your extensive hard work and graft on this.
May I ask – are any of the discussion published anywhere to watch?
Thanks
Dave
Richard, if Ocean Infinity agreed with your research and wanted to search in the different area, would it be allowed to without the permission of the Malaysian government?
Have you spoken with Ocean Infinity and have they given reasons for not searching the small area that you identified?
@Graham,
Ocean Infinity are waiting for the results of the large scale WSPR analysis by Prof. Simon Maskell and his team at Liverpool University. The WSPR research was discussed at length at the meeting between Ocean Infinity and the Malaysian government on 2nd May 2024. Confidence is increasing in this independent large scale WSPR analysis.
The research is based on using WSPR to detect around one thousand Boeing 777 flights during the 24 hour period of 1st August 2023. An automated processing chain is being used to compare the WSPR detections to the ADS-B and ADS-C data.
ADS-B data is often estimated when an aircraft is out of range of ADS-B land based receivers. There is only a small amount of ADS-C data from satellite based receivers. We only take confirmed ADS-B and ADS-C data and not estimated data.
WSPR data is based on the location of the transmitter and receiver antennas. These are given by a 4 or 6 character Maidenhead Grid locator. The histogram for transmitter antennas with 4 character locators up to a distance error of 100 km shows that 1,189 are inaccurate and peak at an error of 66 km. The histogram for transmitter antennas with 6 character locators up to a distance error of 10 km shows that 2,939 are fairly accurate and peak at an error of 2.3 km. The inaccuracies in the antenna location data has required building an antenna location database using the exact latitude and longitude data as provided by each radio amateur. This is time consuming.
There are 67,663 flight routes in the world, between 3,321 airports. There are on average 21,538 aircraft in the air at any one time. For each Boeing 777 flight detection using WSPR, we need to show that the aircraft is detected when present and not detected when absent. We take the data for the presence of an aircraft from the ADS-B and ADS-C data. We take the data for the absence of an aircraft 6 minutes later. Although the aircraft has moved on 49 nmi (90 km) at an average of 487 knots in that 6 minutes, we have to check that there is meanwhile not another aircraft (and possibly another type of aircraft) at that position. This is time consuming.
Thanks for the detailed explanation.
When is the large scale analysis due to be completed? Does that mean Ocean Infinity would make a separate trip in the future if it was convinced? If it’s in the area, it seems silly not to take a look this time.
@Graham,
The large scale analysis software development is completed. The software is in the test phase. The results will be peer reviewed by a number of academics before publication.
I think we will get to the point soon, where Ocean Infinity have something that they are happy to work with.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/mh370-location-new-search-for-mh370s-wreckage-could-begin-within-weeks-off-wa-coast/d75a645a-c998-496a-8508-46c641757952
(Only 30 kilometers from previous search zone ……)
@ventus45,
In the article you quote from Channel Nine in Australia they state: “The new search zone is just 30 kilometres from its previous search zone.” What Channel Nine do not say is, where along the previous search zone Ocean Infinity believe that MH370 will be found.
In the same article Channel Nine in Australia states: “Ocean Infinity believes MH370 crashed 562 kilometres west of Perth in the Indian Ocean.” The previous search zone was up to 26.5 nmi (49 km) either side of the 7th Arc, tapering to 22.5 nmi (42 km) North of 32.5°S. The current and previous Ocean Infinity search area is between 1,500 km and 2,100 km west of Perth. Channel Nine are incorrect in stating 562 km.
Ocean Infinity are not yet fully convinced of the utility of WSPR to define a search area for MH370. The announced Ocean Infinity search area is 15,000 km2 between 33°S and 36°S extending out to 45 nmi (83 km) from the 7th Arc. It is centred on the so called “IG Hotspot”, which is 34.234°S 93.788°E and taken from the paper I wrote together with Ulich, Iannello and Banks in 2020. This paper has since been superseded by the work on WSPR.
MH370 will not be found in this area as currently defined by Ocean Infinity. This search area is based on a straight line flight into the Indian Ocean on autopilot, without an active pilot involved and given the fuel on board at Long Range Cruise (LRC) mode until fuel exhaustion. The assumption of a straight line flight for around 6 hours into the Indian Ocean, may well be incorrect, especially if there was an active pilot.
The WSPR analysis shows that there was an active pilot and the flight path was not a straight line. WSPR shows a point further North at around 29.1°S 99.9°E, which is 62 km from the 7th Arc and 19 km further out than previously searched by Ocean Infinity.
@Richard
Channel 9 must have updated their report since you viewed it because both the map and the voiceover at 1:22 now say 1562 km west of Perth.
Your “Candidate C” is 1562 km from the coordinates given by Wikipedia for Perth, but on a bearing of 277°, not 270°.
So I think the report is referring to your “Candidate C”, and not the “IG Hotspot”, which is 2068 km from Perth.
@Duncan,
Many thanks for pointing out the difference between the text “562 km” and the video “1562 km”.
The text is still wrong in the Channel 9 report.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/mh370-location-new-search-for-mh370s-wreckage-could-begin-within-weeks-off-wa-coast/d75a645a-c998-496a-8508-46c641757952
My main concern is that Ocean Infinity is planing to search north from the seventh arc and that total planned area of 15.000 km2 might not be sufficient to cover yours, CATIO’s and IG’s (Area 2 specifically) recommended search areas.
If there is a new search I imagine it will cover all the areas that have been proposed – and probably much more besides if OI’s 2018 search is anything to go by.
I think the bigger risk is that the Malaysians come up with some excuse not to commission a new search, or just run the clock down until a search this season ceases to be viable.
They’ve had OI’s proposal for over six months now, and we’re already a fortnight into the weather window.
Richard,
Congratulations on your research creating a positive outcome with Loke.
Your findings couldn’t be clearer. QTR 901 fortifies claims into pragmatic actuality.
I understand Ocean Infinity are financially backed company.
However, is there any open donations page for the anticipated search? Will public funding become available for the 9M-MRO project?
Godspeed,
@Duncan
I think we have to face some cold hard facts.
There has been no search for 6 years plus, even though OI has had an open standing offer on the table the whole time. There is a simple reason for that. Malaysia has no desire to find the aircraft, and I would posit, never did. Malaysia certainly has no desire to facilitate another search.
The commitment that was given by Minister Loke at the ten-year anniversary was a hollow commitment, one that was made only because it was a high-profile media event, simply because it was the ten-year anniversary, a decade, a ‘milestone’ anniversary, that garnered media attention and put MH370 back in the public eye again (for a few days anyway).
Remember, the seventh anniversary was a low-key event, as was the eighth, and the nineth, and I am sure, the eleventh, twelfth and beyond will hardly raise a ripple in the media either.
The Malaysian Government knows that and will just simply ‘ride it out’. Malaysia just wants MH370 to ‘go away’ into the history books. Malaysia will just ‘sit tight’ and do nothing, unless it becomes politically uncomfortable, and I can’t see that happening, unless the NOK themselves get very vocal, and very soon.
The longer the NOK remain hopeful and muted (which is effectively equivalent to being politically silent, and therefore easy for the politicians to ignore), the further into the search season we get, and the less likely there will be any response at all from the Malaysian Government. Your ‘running out the clock’ comment is ‘on the money’.
On the other side of the ledger, it seems that OI has apparently decided that they will not search without the approval of the Malaysian Government, so if that approval never comes, there will be no search, not just this year, but never. One can only assume that OI must have a ‘drop dead date’ for receiving approval, before they decide to redeploy their ships to some other task / project. I would assume, all things considered, logistics wise, that they probably would not be prepared to wait beyond the end of November.
So, as I said above, I think the NOK have to decide what they really want to do, very soon, within the next two weeks.
@ventus45,
If Malaysia does not agree to the OI proposal and OI decide not to search without an agreement with Malaysia, then Malaysia will lose control of the search and OI will miss the opportunity to be recompensed $70 M.
There are others out there who are willing to search without an agreement with Malaysia or recompense from Malaysia. Imagine the global media pressure on Malaysia, when someone reveals that they have found MH370.
Malaysia will not want to leave the door open for a search, that they do not control and be forced into having to react to the locating of the MH370 wreckage on terms that they do not dictate.
@Richard
Malaysia has up until now, still is, and can continue to play it’s cards close to it’s chest.
Malaysia loses nothing if there is no search, (whether by OI or anyone else) because obviously MH370 will not be found. Last time, when OI positioned to search without an agreement, Malaysia came scrambling to the party literally at the eleventh hour, just in case they did find it. What was telling however, was that they quite unreasonably limited the search to a specific area and time frame (both of which were slightly extended – one might say – under duress).
If OI is not prepared to go through the same ‘game’ again, (and who would blame them) then fair enough. As for anyone else searching, (DSV ?) with or without Malaysia’s blessing, I think that is so unlikely, as to be dismissed out of hand.
However, on a purely hypothetical basis, let’s assume someone other than OI did, and let’s assume they did get lucky find it. Malaysia is still in the box seat. If the company wanted to be paid, they would have to accept whatever restrictions and conditions Malaysia would put on them. If that was unacceptable to whoever they were, there would be no deal, they would wear their costs, and they could then give the recorders to whoever they wanted to (assuming anyone would take them). Malaysia is still in the box seat, because the recorders would be ‘hot potatoes’ at that point. I doubt that any country who wants to maintain any kind of diplomatic let alone defense relationship with Malaysia would touch them with a barge pole. So that excludes both Australia and the USA up front.
So, who else might be interested? Perhaps the French, or maybe the Chinese ?
@ventus45,
There is another company willing to search for MH370 without recompense from Malaysia at their own cost. This company is owned by a philanthropist multi-millionaire, who is willing to fund an underwater search for MH370 in the Southern Indian Ocean.
I am not talking about Deep Sea Vision (DSV), the company you mention, as they require an agreement with Malaysia and require compensation.
I am talking about another company that has a fleet of AUVs and proven capability in underwater search.
That company will not interfere with the wreckage or take the recorders without permission. As you have pointed out, the wreckage is a crime scene in several jurisdictions. As I have pointed out, under international salvage law the company requires the permission of the owner of the aircraft, which is Malaysia.
I am talking about a company, who will take underwater videos and pictures of the wreckage when found.
The publication of the fact of the discovery with evidence from videos and pictures, without revealing the location, will be enough to draw substantial media coverage. Malaysia will not have an excuse to fail to negotiate the salvage of the wreckage with that company.
Hi Richard,
If it comes to the point that this other company are going to begin a new search independently, have they given any indication on when this could be? ie Nov 2025? To my knowledge, the seas are too hostile outside the southern hemisphere’s summer to be searching the Southern Indian Ocean.
Our continued thanks for the regular updates Richard, hundreds of us rely on people such as yourself to provide insight and updates. We all want this solved.
@Gary,
The other company are not reliant on ships in the area to collect data or recharge the batteries of AUVs. The AUVs are completely autonomous and come to the surface from time to time to transmit their data via satellite and recharge their batteries via solar panels.
The AUVs can be dropped on a parachute from an aircraft and only need to be collected by ship at the end of their mission.
The other company only plan to search in the event that OI or anybody else do not.
@ Richard.
If that can happen, I am all for it, except for Malaysia’s involvement, which I specifically exclude.
The simple fact is, that when it is located, it is instantly a crime scene, with multiple international ramifications, and must be processed under international criminal legal provisions, and certainly not under any circumstances under Malaysian law alone.
If Malaysia were to authorise a new commercially driven or philanthropic search for the wreckage of MH370, it might be better to do so in consultation with her Five Powers partners, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and the UK.
The Five Powers probably have the technical capacity to locate the wreckage without reliance on state or private entities that may be hostile to Malaysia or Singapore.
“In the event of any form of armed attack externally organised or supported or the threat of such attack against Malaysia and Singapore, their governments would immediately consult together for the purpose of deciding what measures should be taken jointly or separately in relation to such attack or threat”.
The five member-nations continue to contribute to combined and joint exercises, and training opportunities that focus on high-end conventional war fighting, while also being flexible in responding to the changing security landscape. This includes expanding maritime security, counter-terrorism, HADR, and non-combatant evacuation operations.
Additionally, new and emerging capabilities will become more prevalent over the next decade, such as cybersecurity and unmanned aircraft systems. Progress on developing capacity in these areas will continue to be made at a pace comfortable to all member-nations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Power_Defence_Arrangements
@TommyL
I am not sure that I understand what you are trying to say. It is true that Australia is one of the five powers, but in the case of MH370, I see that very fact as more of a hinderance to disclosure of the facts than otherwise. For example, the biggest issue we have with ‘the data’ on MH370, is the ‘the radar data’, specifically, the lack of the ‘military radar data’ which has never been released. From what we do know, there were obviously failures to act within the IADS on the night MH370 vanished. You do realise (I presume) that the Commander Integrated Air Defence Systems at the Royal Malaysian Air Force Base Butterworth in Malaysia is, and was on the night that MH370 went missing, an RAAF Officer, not an RMAF Officer.
https://www.airforce.gov.au/about-us/history/our-journey/integrated-air-defence-system-formed
If Australia wanted the radar data released, it would have been, long ago, but I doubt that the Australian Government has any desire to embarrass either the Malaysian Government or itself.
The good news is Malaysia can safely approve the proposed search without much risk of losing their $70M. The goal is to give OI a “practical search area” which to me means probably not where MH370 actually crashed. If MH370 was a crime, and it probably was, I’ll be very surprised if crashing in a “practical search area” anywhere near Arc7 was the strategy.
@TBill
“I’ll be very surprised if crashing in a “practical search area” anywhere near Arc7 was the strategy.”
I agree.
Zahari’s strategy clearly was ‘to vanish’, so as not to be found, ever, for which he needed:-
(1) to ensure that he “soft ditched” without setting off the crash beacon,
(2) to ensure that he ‘soft ditched” so that the aircraft would sink in as complete a state as possible, to minimise floating debris,
(3) to glide as far as he could, to ensure that he was as far beyond maximum fuel exhaustion range as possible.
Malaysia knows that it was a deliberate event by Zahari, there is no ‘mystery’, and Malaysia don’t want that being proved (for a host of reasons – your ‘denial’ thesis applies) so the last thing they want is for it to be found.
This leaves Malaysia with two options.
(1) Malaysia will ‘duck and weave’ with the aim of never approving any further search. This strategy is their safest option, because it leaves them with the fallback position of being able to eventually ‘safely’ approve a search (where they are pretty damn sure it isn’t) but only if the political pressure to do so becomes too much to push back against.
(2) Malaysia will ‘duck and weave’ and not approve any search, unless it becomes clear to them, that someone is going to search without their blessing anyway, in an area where THEY think it just might be. In this case, Malaysia’s biggest worry is that it ‘might’ actually be found, and in that event, it would be vital to Malaysia’s interests for them to retain the ability to ‘control the nararative’ to minimize any ‘fall out’. If they did not have an arrangement in being with the searcher, they may have great difficulty controlling the narrative.
So, as I see it today, Malaysia isn’t likely to approve OI’s proposed search, because they don’t think it is where OI is proposing to search, so they are playing option (1) above. If OI wants their search approved, they will have to convince the NOK to ramp up the pressure. If they don’t, there will be no search (this season at least).
I think I agree with Richard. This is likely OI’s last offer to search, having to do with OI’s need to test new ships. It would be good for Malaysia to approve, to give closure that all was done that could be done under the accepted set of simplifying assumptions (which may be wrong, of course).
Since OI will be bearing the entire financial risk of any new search, they should be allowed to search wherever they want.
Any attempt by Malaysia to place restrictions on where they can search would immediately be seen for what it is.
@Duncan,
Ocean Infinity realise that the proposed underwater search for MH370 must be successful as there is no appetite for another search thereafter.
Ocean Infinity will not accept restrictions placed on their current search proposal and want to keep searching as long as possible wherever they choose until MH370 is found.
@ventus45
I entirely agree that if and when the wreckage is found, the Malaysians shouldn’t be allowed to call the shots, not least because it would be grist to the mill for all the conspiracy theorists. Hopefully the Malaysians will recognise this and delegate the recovery and analysis of the FDR and CVR to an agency that all interested parties can live with.
Regarding your belief that the Malaysians are actively trying to avoid a new search, you may well be right, but if so why did Loke announce in parliament just last week that the OI proposal was “credible”, thereby meeting the exact test that his government had previously set? He could easily have kicked the can down the road by saying that they were still awaiting the results of the large scale WSPR analysis referenced by @Richard above.
So I’m keeping an open mind as to whether they’re really trying to avoid a new search, or are just remiss (to put it as politely as I can) when it comes to communicating their intentions, reasoning and timescales. As I recall they received similar criticism when the plane first went missing.
@Richard
Before he died in 2018, Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Paul Allen was heavily into deep-sea exploration. Searches he funded located several WW2 wrecks, including the cruiser USS Indianapolis and the carrier USS Lexington. Is the philanthropist/other company you refer to anything to do with his heirs or family foundation?
@Duncan,
In this case it is another philanthropist and not Paul Allen.
The person in question has asked to remain anonymous.
@All,
As of Monday 18th November 2024, the Ocean Infinity Armada ships 7804, 7806 and 7808 are still moored in Singapore harbour.
7801 is moored in Den Helder, Netherlands.
7802 is under way off the North coast of Scotland.
7803 is at anchor off Stavanger, Norway.
7805 is under way in an AUV operation off Egersund, Norway.
7807 is moored in San Diego, USA.
All eight ships in the Armada 78 fleet are accounted for and none are under way in the Indian Ocean.
Good morning and thks for the news updates!! i am stili thinking the reason. why Malasian goberment still doesnt accept the OI offer. I mean if OI doesnt found the Plane so that’s It. there Is no risk. I cant get the point. 18 november and the 3 vessels still waiting the Malaysian goberment approved the search. When OI founded ARA SAN JUAN Submarine It was the Same contract. if they Didnt found. argentina Will not pay. OI found It and the Argentina pay the Money OI asked. There is no risk for Malaysian goberment!
@Omar,
The risk for the Malaysian government is that evidence comes to light that shows that Malaysian Airlines is culpable.
The former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has said the “top levels” of the Malaysian government long suspected that the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was a mass murder-suicide by the pilot. If the pilot was culpable, then the airline was culpable. Malaysia Airlines is owned entirely by the Malaysian government, through the sovereign wealth fund, Khazanah Nasional.
The Malaysian government could face multiple-million dollar claims for recompense made by the families of those lost as a result of this tragedy.
If MH370 is not found, then no evidence can be found from the wreckage.
Are OI and Malaysian government waiting the results of large-scale WSPR data analysis you mentioned? Maybe they will not finalize the contract and the extent of the search zone before that is completed.
@Marijan,
Ocean Infinity are not waiting for the results of the large-scale WSPR data analysis, they are being kept informed in private.
Ocean Infinity and the Malaysian government are tight lipped about their negotiations, which are still ongoing.
@All,
Two Ocean Infinity ships have left Singapore. Armada 7804 is headed for Kuantan, Malaysia. Armada 7806 is head for an offshore location near Taiwan.
Armada 7808 remains moored in Singapore.
Could this mean that 7804 is going to Malaysia before going on a search? I didn’t quite understand if this was a good thing or a bad thing.
@Edward,
Both ships are moving North East and away from the Indian Ocean at the moment.
I guess that means the negotiations have not been successful and Ocean Infinity has returned to business as usual. A destination of offshore Taiwan has certainly nothing to do with MH370. A destination of Kuantan, Malaysia is also in the wrong direction, if the Indian Ocean was the ultimate objective.
Both destinations are in the opposite direction to the SIO, so it does’t look good.
@Richard, do you know what the sticking point is in the negotiations between OI and Malaysia?
Whilst the analysis that has led to the various locations that OI are now proposing to search is obviously very complicated, the contract doesn’t need to to be.
All it really needs to cover are the fee, the precise circumstances in which it becomes payable (whether that be the location of the wreckage, the recovery of the recorders, or whatever), and how long the search is allowed to run for (the obvious termination date being the end of this season’s weather window).
Furthermore, the parties already have a template from which to work in the shape of their 2018 contract.
So what exactly is it that they can’t agree on this time?
@Duncan,
The Malaysian government and Ocean Infinity are not saying anything publicly about the negotiations.
It appears that Malaysia fears that a new search would actually find MH370 and prove the Captain was culpable.
This would mean that Malaysia and their sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional, as the owner of Malaysian Airlines, would be subject to 238 multi million dollar compensation claims from the families of the other passengers and crew.
The former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has said the “top levels” of the Malaysian government long suspected that the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was a mass murder-suicide by the pilot. If the pilot was culpable, then the airline was culpable. Malaysia Airlines is owned entirely by the Malaysian government, through the sovereign wealth fund, Khazanah Nasional.
In my view, it is not the $70M for Ocean Infinity that Malaysia is worried about, but 238 x $50M = $12B in compensation claims.
But surely they’re already liable? It was a Malaysian plane with an entirely Malaysian crew flying out of a Malaysian airport, with all passengers, cargo and fuel having been loaded there.
I don’t know where your figure of $50m per person comes from, but to me it seems like an amount that only a US court would award, and only as punitive damages if it could be demonstrated that Malaysian Airlines had ignored warning signs that the pilot or co-pilot might do something like this. As far as I’m aware nobody has ever suggested that there were any warning signs. And surely only the three American passengers would have cause to bring a case in the US courts anyway.
Furthermore, if they were really trying to avoid another search, the Malaysians had a “get out of jail free card” in that they could say that any new search proposal wasn’t credible. Why did Loke throw that card away by announcing a fortnight ago that the OI proposal WAS credible?
So I can certainly see why you and many others think the Malaysians are trying to avoid another search, but I’m keeping an open mind on the subject and pinning my hopes on Armada 78 08…
@Duncan,
I agree that my $50M per family is US style. There are 110 Chinese families that have settled for a lot less.
Floyd Wisner is an expert international insurance aviation lawyer who represented families in the crash of Air France Flight 447 in the Atlantic. He says Malaysian Airlines faces damages claims of “half a billion dollars, or more” from relatives of the 239 passengers and crew on board the missing flight.
There are unsettled claims before courts in China, Malaysia, Australia and several countries totalling over $1B.
Could the Malaysian Gov be playing a subtler game than we think?
Hypothetically, let’s assume Armada 78 08 is, by some way of contract, the only ship permitted to complete the search. What if there is a communication or electronic issue with Armada?
With no back up fleet, Malaysia limits operational scope subversively, concluding no find no fee. The search would be cancelled if the single ship trips up. Are they betting on rougher conditions or faults & thereby denying help? It certainly portrays the image Malaysia WANTS to search, but NATURAL elements constrict OI.
Keeping track of the position daily. Hoping for a resolution soon.
If Malaysia afraid of any lawsuit or about pilot, why they let Ocean Infinity conducting search in 2018 ?
The main issues is that they not confident about the Ocean Infinity area, WSPR, Captain Blelly or Independent Group.
Thats why you read news, they always say they want ‘credible evidence’.
@Will,
The Malaysian government could be playing a subtle game, as you suggest.
Ocean Infinity could be moving the ships as a negotiation tactic, as others have suggested.
Who knows? Only the Malaysia government and Ocean Infinity know what is going on and both are not telling.
There is no public statement from either party, that the proposed search will go ahead, or is cancelled.
The points about negotiation are viable. The significance of 1 ship moored speaks volumes, either way.
Perhaps extra materials or crew are elsewhere and need loading? Despite robust proposals, unseen clauses and prep may be on their minds.
Keep tracking those ships.
@Will,
Or a photo opportunity in a port in Malaysia?
If that were the case why choose Kuantan? Port Klang (Malaysia’s main port, near KL) is closer, and the Port of Tanjung Pelepas is a fraction of the distance on the other side of the Johor Strait from Singapore.
Did OI’s ship heading to Malaysia originate from Malaysia? It seems illogical for any vessel to backtrack and regroup, unless vital.
This superficially evokes ‘heading home after an anti climax’.
If Malaysian Gov is adverse towards paying compensation, while avoiding PR intrusiveness, hindering OI’s logistics could provide a path. Speculation 101.
@Duncan,
According to ports.com, Port Kuantan is 226 nmi from Singapore and Port Klang is 230 nmi from Singapore.
The co-ordinates used by ports.com for Singapore (1°17′35.00″N 103°51′21.00″E) are more than 10 nautical miles east of where 78 04 was actually moored.
But either way, on a no cure, no fee arrangement I very much doubt that OI would be willing to sail 200+ nm in the wrong direction just for a photo op!
I suspect the Malaysians have given them another job to keep them busy while negotiations are ongoing.
Both OI control centres are more than 10,000 km from the proposed search areas.
Perhaps the Malaysian government, for $70m, wants more from OI than just concrete proof of the final resting place of MH370.
The Malaysian government, and / or associated regional commercial interests, might also be insisting that all the data captured by OI, including any data suggesting locations of potential ocean floor oil, coal, gas and other mineral deposits, be routed through control centres in Kuala Lumpur, or Singapore, or possibly even Perth (Australia), rather than Austin Texas, where OI has its headquarters, or Southampton, (England) where it has an additional remote underwater vehicle control centre.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_Infinity
@Will,
The Armada ships did not arrive in Singapore harbour from Malaysia.
@All,
Armada 78 04 is under way from Singapore to Port Kuantan, Malaysia:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/m5es8dc2oi42xa77nzmp6/Armada-78-04-21NOV2024-1927-UTC.png?rlkey=9detju8mxo4o7nr8arbzswzfm&dl=0
Armada 78 06 is under way from Singapore to Taiwan.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/u5arafeqa5hv97wgdf5md/Armada-78-06-21NOV2024-1926-UTC.png?rlkey=c92g5uj1wsfxm8qcgbqa5sz5w&dl=0
Hi good afternoon. I think that in this case, if OI is withdrawing due to not reaching an agreement with Malaysia, it will be up to philanthropists to finance the search for MH 370
I don’t see why Malaysia doesn’t want to find the plane. If it was Captain Zaharie, who committed mass suicide, it will be the same case as GermanWings, and nothing has been hidden in that case. The families will be paid money from the insurance companies, I believe. If it was another type of failure, technical, electrical, mechanical, for example, I am not sure but the same compensation applies. I believe the fact that whether it is suicide, or technical failure, compensation is paid in the same way.
If Captain Zaharie committed mass suicide, it would be the first time in history that someone flies a plane for 7 hours to take his own life and hide the plane so as not to be found, I don’t see the point. I live in Argentina but I am going to travel 7 hours to take my life. It makes absolutely no sense.
@All,
Armada 7804 is off the East coast of Malaysia and has stopped to test AUVs.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5nsis9wghrla9q5s943jx/Armada-7804-22NOV2024-0829-UTC.png?rlkey=1t2030ffapmpi31nd2bwub664&dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/eur49rq3g6vpxvo09hima/Armada-7804-22NOV2024-0825-UTC.png?rlkey=01j5zcpz8t0wkwmc6lybekzwr&dl=0
Armada 7806 is under way to a destination offshore in Taiwan.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/yg74fs40l4a4wpkyneqci/Armada-7806-22NOV2024-0828-UTC.png?rlkey=0y2pgvoobsir4kt59apun7zf0&dl=0
Armada 7808 is under way in the Singapore region to an unknown destination for ROV tests.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/t8a886bk241i4j7ya31vq/Armada-7808-22NOV2024-0830-UTC.png?rlkey=3s4h6t9ezuh0zmh4jngrfqmi2&dl=0
@All,
Armada 7804 is off Kuantan, Malaysia and has been testing AUVs.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5xw154theentod7n0qlyu/Armada-7804-23NOV2024-0752-UTC.png?rlkey=sk59vkvkt6bk69et9xh0ew7k9&dl=0
Armada 7806 is under way to a destination offshore in Taiwan.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ygpbx85iiv7k25lb13h6a/Armada-7806-23NOV2024-0752-UTC.png?rlkey=dkxljicjj3ccde2npezpnuz5c&dl=0
Armada 7808 was under way in the Singapore region and has now stopped to test a ROV.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/hnjihfcru0whfouy687hv/Armada-7808-23NOV2024-0752-UTC.png?rlkey=ripu9logw4vlrpnhz0gjkihfy&dl=0
@All,
Malaysia is stalling and running down the clock on a new underwater search for MH370.
Armada 7806 is on another offshore assignment in Taiwan and out of the picture as far as MH370 is concerned.
Armada 7804 is testing AUVs and Armada 7808 is testing a ROV. Both these ships are still in the Singapore and Malaysia region, not far from their home port of Singapore. They are still ready for an assignment with regard to MH370, but not making any move to the Indian Ocean.
The planned visit tomorrow to Kuantan, Malaysia by Armada 7804 may be designed to embarrass the Malaysian government into action. Ocean Infinity will make the implicit public statement: “we are here and ready to go”.
Perhaps they’ll give the Malaysian next-of-kin a tour of the the ship – with the media in attendance of course. That would do the job nicely.
@Duncan,
It appears that the next-of-kin have not been invited by Ocean Infinity for a tour of the boat.
Armada fleet has been in the harbor for quite a while now and it is logical to perform some testing and warming up nearby before going to open sea, a 1500 kilometeres away from land. If there are any shortcomings or repairs needed they would be much easier to correct now, while close to the port.
@Marijan,
Armada 7804 did not have to go to Kuantan, Malaysia to test AUVs.
Armada 7808 is testing the ROV much closer to Singapore.
Marinetraffic.com is now giving 78 04’s destination as back in Singapore, not Kuantan.
ETA 16:00 tomorrow, an hour after 78 08 is due back.
@Duncan,
Many thanks for the update from MarineTraffic.
VesselFinder shows both Armada 7804 and 7808 are stationary at the moment.
VesselFinder is still showing Armada 7804 is due at the port of Kuantan tomorrow and 7808 is due at the port of Singapore tomorrow.
We shall soon see.
@All,
Armada 7804 arrived at the port of Kuantan, Malaysia on 24th November 2024 at 06:30 UTC.
Armada 7808 arrived back at the port of Singapore on 24th November 2024 at 06:30 UTC.
@All,
Armada 7804 is moored in Kuantan, Malaysia.
Armada 7806 is under way in the South China Sea, over halfway to Taiwan.
Armada 7808 is moored in Singapore harbour.
If Armada 7808 is the ship designated for the new underwater search for MH370, why is it moored in Singapore and not in the southern Indian Ocean?
Why is there nothing in the Malaysian media on the results of the presentations to the Malaysian cabinet or Malaysian parliament?
We now have 26th November and the window for a new underwater search was stated by Anthony Loke, Malaysian Minister of Transport, as being November 2024 to March 2025.
How long will Malaysia discuss the proposal without making a decision?
@Richard
Here are some answers to your questions:
“Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion” – Parkinson’s law
Anwar Ibrahim is visiting South Korea, and we will not see any progress for sure before he comes back, and the Cabinet holds another meeting/session.
As for the ships, they completed the planned trials, and the Armada 78 04 is probably expecting some kind of visit from Malaysian authorities as you said.
We will not see any ships leaving for Indian Ocean before any contract is signed, that’s for sure, so we have to be patient.
@Marijan,
The Malaysian government was presented the Ocean Infinity proposal on 8th May 2024.
That was 7 months ago!
@ Richard
It is how it is. I don’t expect that search starts before January.
@Marijan,
I don’t expect Malaysia to approve a search by Ocean Infinity.
If Malaysia wanted to agree to Ocean Infinity’s proposal, they would have done so by now.
@All,
There is another clue from the ship’s draught (US: draft).
The nautical draught of a ship indicates how deep it is in the water. The more and the heavier a ship is loaded, the deeper it will be in the water.
Armada 7804’s current draught is 5.7 m and is partially laden.
Armada 7801’s current draught is 6.5 m and is more fully laden.
All operational Armada 78’s are over 5.5 m.
An empty Armada 78’s draught is around 5.0 m or less.
Armada 7808’s current draught is 4.6 m and it is not laden.
Armada 7808 is not laden, as you would expect for a long voyage to the southern Indian Ocean.
@ Richard
I don’t lose hope!
Current Malaysian administration is much less familiar with the matter than the previous one. It is understandable they need more time, and this search for sure was not on their priority list during this year. I also believe this is more due procrastination than some hidden agenda. Anthony Loke spoke in front of media as well as the Parliament and now we have two ships leaving Singapore, doing trials and one of them docking in Malaysia. For me, those are all positive cues. We just have to accept that things work differently in the East than in the West, have hopes and wait at least until January to see what decision is going to be.
@Marijan,
It is not true that the current Malaysian administration is much less familiar with the matter than the previous one.
Anthony Loke was the Minister of Transport in both the current and the previous administration.
According to Wikipedia: “Anthony Loke Siew Fook is a Malaysian politician who has served as the Minister of Transport for the first term in the Unity Government administration under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim since December 2022 and previously in the Pakatan Harapan administration under former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad from May 2018 to the collapse of the PH administration in February 2020”.
@Richard
OK, I was referring to Najib Razak’s government, the one who approved the previous search from 2018. and whose members were there since 2014.
Even if 78 08 was to leave Singapore today, it wouldn’t get to the search area until well into December, so that puts paid to November and 20% of the search window.
The kindest thing that can be said of the Malaysians is that they’re either oblivious or indifferent to the optics of all this.
So, as @ventus45 suggested on 16 & 17 November above, I think the time has now come for the next-of-kin to start making some serious fuss, and for the mainstream media worldwide (not just in Malaysia) to start openly accusing the Malaysian government of dragging their feet and running the clock down.
The objective should be to make it more embarrassing for them to continue as they are than it would be if the plane is found and it’s confirmed that it was indeed a deliberate act by one of the crew – which most people seem to believe anyway.
Either that, or it’s time for the philanthropist to step up to the plate…
“Either that, or it’s time for the philanthropist to step up to the plate…”
I was thinking the same thing and I think I put it in a comment above. Maybe the philanthropist has to take charge of the situation, anyway if the philanthropist finds the plane, I think there is no excuse for Malaysia to rescue the black boxes.
@All,
A new video on YouTube by Geoffrey Thomas regarding the need to search for MH370.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_V7UHcHRPU
Geoffrey asks “Is Malaysia serious about finding MH370?”
@Marijan,
Again what you say is misleading.
The previous Ocean Infinity search started in January 2018 and ended in June 2018.
The Najib Razak administration was ousted in May 2018.
The current administration and especially the Minister of Transport Anthony Loke has much more experience dealing with Ocean Infinity both in 2018 and 2024.
Anthony Loke was Minister of Transport in the former administration for almost 2 years and again in the current administration for 2 years.
When Loke determined OI’s proposal as credible, UK media jumped.
The Independent purported, ‘Search To Restart’. Despite lacking contract certification, this indicates no doubt.
Wikipedia states, ‘Many media outlets are either owned directly by the government of Malaysia or owned by component parties of the Barisan Nasional coalition.’
Is similar media shared WITHIN Malaysia? Press has power, holding them accountable, and could urge family members to appeal.
@All,
Nothing the Malaysian government has done speaks to a fervent desire to find MH370.
When will the Malaysian government accept the proposal by Ocean Infinity to search again for MH370. This is effectively the same deal that Malaysia accepted in 2018. The Minister of Transport Anthony Loke has stated that there is credible new evidence. Ocean Infinity has a proven capability in under water search and is willing to enter again into a ‘no find, no fee’ contract.
The Malaysian government has a responsibility as a member of the ICAO to work to solve the mystery of the disappearance of MH370 with 239 people on board.
The Malaysian government is ignoring the safety of the flying public.
The Malaysian government is ignoring the plight of the MH370 families.
I invite the international media to put pressure on the Malaysian government to act responsibly and agree to a new search for MH370.
@All,
Armada 7808 current draught (US draft) has increased to 6.8m from only 4.6m yesterday.
It appears that Armada 7808 is fully loaded and preparing to leave the port of Singapore.
Armada 7804 has moved to the refuelling station in Kuantan Port, Malaysia and is also preparing to leave port.
Presumably there could still be time for OI to complete search if they started by about Feb, but that is cutting it close. As far as Malaysian responsibility, as William Langewiesche (The Atlantic) observed, ICAO rules are really designed for confident democracies who are willing to investigate honestly and thoroughly.
Waiting until February would leave time in the weather window for only one swing. From a purely logistics point of view, that’s a non-starter for any single vessel based campaign. It’s not cutting it close Bill, it’s effectively cutting it.
@TBill, @ventus45,
To allow Ocean Infinity the flexibility “to search for MH370 until it is found”, then the maximum possible time window is required. It takes a minimum of 8 days to reach the search area from Singapore at 10 knots, so the earliest start is now 7th December 2024. Ocean Infinity have already lost 5 weeks of their proposed time window.
It appears that the Malaysian government are running down the clock on Ocean Infinity.
Well the reason I say Feb is OK is my possibly bad assumption is that neither Malaysia nor OI had in mind a huge exploratory search to actually find MH370. By waiting but with eventual approval for Feb-2025 there is less pressure on Malaysia to keep going after a “Phase-1” completion.
Good afternoon i am not sure what it means, they are good news or it means both ships they will leave Malasia and Singapur to return to get another work,(not going to Southern Indian Ocean).
@Omar López,
You are correct, it could mean either Armada 7808 or 7804 or both are headed to the Indian Ocean to search for MH370 or either Armada 7808 or 7804 or both have another assignment elsewhere, which is unrelated to MH370.
As of 28th November 2024 07:30 UTC, Armada 7808 is still moored in Singapore and 7804 is still moored in Kuantan, Malaysia.
With the absence of any press release from either the Malaysian government or Ocean Infinity, we have to assume that they have been unable to reach an agreement up until now.
According to Marine Traffic, ARMADA 78 08 is sandwiched between GENESIS and GO MATILDA. GAS TESSA sits in front.
Granted, I know little about mooring. I assume cumbersome ships can maneuver easily.
It’s hardly ease of access. If OI held priority, surely, 78 08 would sit outside?
@Will,
Genesis is a Fugro vessel with a length of 60m. Go Matilda has a length of 75m. Armada 7808 has a length of 78m. It is quite common to moor vessels of similar length along side each other.
Armada 7808 will have no problem to move out from between two other vessels.
If you look again in the coming days, it is quite possible that the positions will change.
Armada 7808 does not have a priority over other vessels moored in the same area.
Dear Richard,
Thanks for all the constant updates here over the past weeks and months and have just spent a bit of time reading through here to get the current state of play so to speak.
I think the fact that the Malaysian government are using delay tactics and being cagey about starting a new search speaks volumes to the level of research that yourself and others have conducted over the past year +.
They know that this is the one of the most credible pieces of evidence of where the likely resting place of 9M-MRO is and the research will at least give the OI search a fighting chance. I’d say they are running around their government buildings like headless chickens saying “look at this evidence! They know where it is they’ll find it what are we going to do?!”
I jest, slightly, but the lack of communication from the Malaysians on this over the last few weeks only bolsters the theory that they do not want the aircraft found. Deep down, they (like the rest of us) all really know what happened onboard that aircraft that night and the fallout that they will have to deal with when the aircraft is found and there is sufficient evidence to suggest that it was deliberate will be absolutely enormous, let alone the cheques they’ll have to write.
I am now less confident of an OI search and the window for the search is rapidly narrowing as we near December. November to March was already pretty tight as it was.
I hope the philanthropist that you speak of is genuinely serious in committing to a search as it seems like the only hope we and the families have now.
Once again, thank you for all the hard work you have poured into this and I can’t imagine how frustrating it is to sit there having done all this only for a selfish government to put a damp cloud over the effort that has been put into finding the aircraft from all involved.
I’ll try to remain optimistic for now but what do you think the future holds for a potential search?
Regards,
Louis
My interview yesterday with Geoffrey Thomas.
https://youtu.be/ZKx_oKqfLxE
@BG. I thought that piece was very good. You spoke in a persuasive and measured manner.
@Louis I’m likewise growing less optimistic.
re MY motivation/calculus I think it is simpler and less sinister than most presume. i think they believe the chance of success is small. Note that an unsuccessful (no find-no fee) search might not entail financial cost but it does incur political cost.
@Paul Smithson
Thank you
@All,
The importance of finding MH370 is explained in the following interview with Geoffrey Thomas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRv6sjrUKc4
@ Richard
Great Interview !! Search On !!
I hate to pull pins and add insult to injury, but Malaysia is facing rising death tolls of 13 during flash flooding. Secondary waves are expected.
Could Transport Ministry be slowed due to infrastructure blockages from road and rail?
According to The Star, Malaysia is also examining a proposal for ‘LTSAS Cargo’ facilities.
@Will,
I agree that Malaysia is facing many issues, but they have had Ocean Infinity’s proposal since 2nd May 2024. That has been 7 months of deliberations and discussions.
Anthony Loke has clearly stated that the best time to search is November 2024 to March 2025. He promised a response in time for a November 2024 search and presented the proposal to his cabinet colleagues in August 2024. That has been 3 months of cabinet deliberations, questions and discussions.
I understand that things go slow in Malaysia, but this is prevarication and irresponsible.
Armada 7804 seems to be underway
@Nginmu Mbetse,
Welcome to the blog and many thanks for the notification concerning Armada 7804.
No destination has been given for Armada 7804, but it is currently heading North East towards Vung Tau in Vietnam, where the Vard Shipyard is based and where Armada 7804 was built.
Armada 7808 is still moored in Singapore harbour.
@All,
Ocean Infinity has won a contract from Petronas, the Malaysian national oil company, to conduct an underwater survey in an offshore oil field near Terengganu, Malaysia. Petronas is in early phase of engaging with local companies for a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit, which is a floating vessel used by the offshore oil and gas industry.
Armada 7804 has started a marine geo hazards geophysical survey in the South China Sea, in the Bekoi Berembang – 1 offshore field 100 nmi (186 km) East of Terengganu, on behalf of Petronas and the Malaysian government.
Is this contract some sort of compensation for the Malaysian government not awarding Ocean Infinity a new underwater search contract for MH370?
good morning and thanks for the update news. Is this some kind of joke by the Malaysian government towards the relatives of the MH370? In other words, Ocean Infinity is proposing a new search. The Malaysian government is thinking about it until November. It accepts the proposal between November and February for the search. The search never started and now Ocean Infinity is assigned to another operation unrelated to the MH370. I live in Argentina and not even the Argentine government has played this way when the Ara San Juan submarine disappeared. Ocean Infinity proposed to search for it without charging a fee if it was not found. Argentina accepted and Ocean Infinity found it and was paid. I don’t understand the Malaysian government. Why promise something to the families and give hope and then not do it?
Amazing the silence of Malaysia, OI, Malaysian press, Malaysian NoK. I guess we are dealing with a somewhat closed society But as far back as Sept there were rumors/rumblings that OI had other jobs to do an could not keep waiting for approvals. But it seems like Malaysia would get bad PR for cancel of “free” search they essentially agreed to seriously consider. Even if not found, it would be a degree of closure that as much was done as practical under the circumstances (and please don’t get me started on characterizing the circumstances).