Ocean Infinity presented a new MH370 underwater search proposal to Anthony Loke, the Malaysian Minister of Transport in Kuala Lumpur on 2nd May 2024. Anthony Loke said that based on discussions held on Thursday, the company had submitted a proposal paper along with evidence and information for examination by the relevant parties under his ministry.
Josh Broussard, the Chief Technology Officer, of Ocean Infinity led the team making the presentation, together with their Commercial Manager.
Pete Foley, the former ATSB search director, also attended the meeting in Malaysia. Pete has been campaigning for a new search for several years and is advising Ocean Infinity on the new search.
Prof. Simon Maskell, from Liverpool University, is a scientific advisor to Ocean Infinity and was also in attendance at the meeting. Simon leads a team investigating the possibility of using WSPR to detect and track aircraft. Simon plans to add the WSPR data to the particle filter developed by the Australian Defence Science and Technology Group (DSTG) described in their book titled “Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370” in order to refine the new MH370 search area.
The new search for MH370 is expected to start in November 2024. Anthony Loke said the whole process of examining the new proposal, including cabinet approval would take about three months. Two representatives of the Association for Families of the Passengers and Crew on board MH370 also attended the meeting. The Association welcomed the new proposal and thanked everyone involved.
@All,
A new article by Geoffrey Thomas at airlineratings.com explains the new search proposal:
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/new-search-for-mh370-expected-to-start-in-november/
The probable location of MH370 using WSPR technology is depicted on a bathymetric map of the Indian Ocean at around 29.128°S 99.934°E.
A close up of the WSPR defined search area is shown in the link below, defined by a circle with a radius of 30km centred on 29.128°S 99.934°E:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/irlhsoap5a2cyysjq9vvr/MH370-Crash-Location-Probability-Map-with-circle-radius-30-km.png?rlkey=saq0q191y7v29du0xok3bol18&dl=0
Hi Richard,
I’ve been following your work for quite some time and am truly impressed by your dedication and the impact your research could have on humanity. Recently, I watched an interview on the BBC featuring Simon Maskell, who discussed the ongoing debates among scientists about the credibility of your methods, despite him having co-signed and peer-reviewed your paper.
Since he supports your technique and findings, I’m curious to know more about the additional research that will be conducted to validate your methodology further. Could you elaborate on what kind of studies or investigations are planned to build upon your existing work?
Thank you for your insights, and I look forward to your response.
@Karlo Timmerman,
Welcome to the blog and many thanks for the kind words!
Given the work that we have conducted to date, Prof. Simon Maskell thinks it is more likely than not that his team, at the University of Liverpool, conclude that WSPR has utility in the context of MH370.
Assuming they do draw that conclusion, we hope the work they are doing on WSPR will enable Ocean Infinity (and others) to share the confidence we will then have in WSPR’s utility in the context of MH370. We are intending to reach a conclusion and, assuming we conclude that WSPR has utility, then define a refined (relative to what DSTG proposed) search area in a timeline that could influence a future search by Ocean Infinity.
The existing Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves are positive, but they are based on a relatively small number of data and there wasn’t time in the BBC documentary or elsewhere to explain ROC curves or even the simpler version of that which we tried to push for.
Up until now, we have ROC curves from a number of flights, but each one is based on up to 244 hundred observations. Here is recent example with 171 observations and an area under the curve of 67%:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/xk0ycgjekma2k3zad1izc/Receiver-Operating-Charcteristic-ROC-171-Observations-Area-Under-the-Curve-67.png?rlkey=zia3v1qxo2ozifvv390bvomgg&dl=0
Our hope is that we can generate a ROC curve with, say, 1000 flights of data from Boeing 777s. If the results are as we anticipate based on the initial ROC curves, we feel it will be difficult to argue that WSPR does not provide compelling new evidence.
Simon has collected all the ADS-B data globally during a 24 hour period. There are on average 21,538 aircraft in the air at any one time. Simon has all the WSPR data globally for the same time period and has developed a processing chain to produce a ROC curve based on around 1,000 flights of a Boeing 777. Long haul aircraft like the Boeing 777 make on average 2 flights per day with an average flying time of 8.58 hours each. This gives around 500,000 rows of data for the ROC curve.
Simon should soon be able to provide a ROC curve that is based on the large amount of data that they have collated. Simon is very conscious that the conclusions from that work are likely to be contentious. They have overtly avoided being funded to do the work thus far. That should make it easier than it would be otherwise to argue that they are not being biased by any commercial considerations. Simon also plans for a peer review by 4 other academic institutions, who have expertise in Bayesian methods and are familiar with the DSTG work, their particle filter and ROC curves.
Assuming that the ROC curve indicates that WSPR has some utility, Simon anticipates a period of refining their algorithm, for example to hone their processing chain and/or analysis to understand how turns, climbs, descents, geography and solar weather impinge on the ROC curve.
Simon also plans to generate a revised search area based on using the statistics from the ROC curve to enable them to augment the analysis that the DSTG did previously, but this time to include WSPR. Simon acted as an adviser to the DSTG book on “Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370”, which defines the particle filter they used to determine the ATSB search area. Simon plans to extend that particle filter to include the WSPR ROC curve from his research.
Hello Richard Godfrey,
I am very impressed with your work regarding WSPR. Very nice work. I was thinking about the Malaysian government’s decision regarding the new search. Not many people familiar about WSPR, so how about proposing three locations (WSPR, Captain Belly-Jean Luc Marchand, and Independent Group-Victor Iannello) in one search?
There is a possibility that the Malaysian government will accept the proposal, especially when the media is aware of the proposal (three location in one search). Otherwise, they will be questioned by the public. Ocean Infinity has great ships and technologies. Previously, in 2018, they searched for MH370 for six months, covering 120,000km2 with one ship and eight Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV). Everything will get easier with the advancement of technology.
That’s why important of three team (WSPR, Captain Belly-Jean Luc Marchand, and Independent Group-Victor Iannello) need to sit together, discuss with Ocean Infinity, cooperate together, increase possibilities. ATSB and DSTG may need to be involved. Three locations in one search (total 120,000km2), once in lifetime, for history, the world will remember about this search many years to come. Thank you.
@Billy,
Welcome to the blog and many thanks for the kind words!
Ocean Infinity reported at the MH370 remembrance event on 6th March 2024 that they are already talking to Aalto University, Linköping University, Liverpool University, Independent Group, Richard Godfrey, Capt. Patrick Blelly and Jean-Luc Marchand.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/4688b5gnwhgee698bl1r9/Research-Summary.png?rlkey=pyhdzm6ktp8i34id7melhxhtd&dl=0
Prof. Simon Maskell, Dr. Hannes Coetzee and I have shared all our findings with Ocean Infinity as well as Pete Foley, ATSB, DSTG and others. We had a video conference call with Andy Sherrell of Ocean Infinity and Pete Foley explaining our WSPR research and findings.
Prof. Simon Maskell attended the Ocean Infinity meeting with Anthony Loke on 2nd May 2024.
Petter Hörnfeldt in his Mentour Pilot documentary on MH370 also suggested searching the areas defined by Capt. Patrick Blelly and Jean-Luc Marchand as well as defined by Prof. Simon Maskell, Dr. Hannes Coetzee and myself.
We also already proposed, what you suggest in our post titled “MH370 – A New Hope” published 16th March 2024.
Great news about a new search!!
Presumably the iron parts of the two Rolls-Royce Trent engines will not have moved much since hitting the ocean floor ten years ago.
If the engines are close to each other and to the remnants of the fuselage and cargo containers it might suggest that the wings remained attached (ie a relatively ‘soft’ ditching).
A harder landing may have caused one or both of the engines to detatch from the wings, or the wings to detach from the fuselage, so the engines could be some distance apart.
Given the documented role of faulty heat exchanger design in previous aircraft emergencies, the age and condition of the heat exchangers from the engines on 9M-MRO might be worth closer inspection, upon recovery.
Item 51 in Appendix 1.6A of the MH370 Safety Report, “Recent Technical Log Entries” contains the following entry:
“S/N 4880475 – 28 February 2014
Maint entry – To c/out physically chk both heat exchanger S/No
and due date as per card no STR 1400567-001
Task carried out.
Found LH heat exchanger S/No 200310115
and RH Heat exchanger S/No 9709161.
Unfortunately can’t find due date on both heat exchanger.”
In particular, it might be important to establish whether or not the heat exchangers had been upgraded in accordance with A09-19-20 (2009).
The serial numbers 2003-10115 and 97-09161 may indicate that the heat exchangers on the engines on 9M-MRO in March 2014 were from 2003 (left engine) and 1997 (right engine).
https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/safety-recs/recletters/A09_19_20.pdf