A Comprehensive Overview on the Ongoing Search for MH370 by Gerard Mendoza Ferrandis.
On 8 March 2014, the greatest mystery in the history of aviation took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KUL) en route to Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK). How and why this plane ended up in the Indian Ocean is still unknown to this date; more than eight years after its disappearance. The scarcity of information regarding the route and wreckage location of the plane has only allowed for speculation, and the lack of a clear motive has left the families of the 239 people on board without closure.
However, a major breakthrough earlier this year has made it possible not only to completely fill in the gaps in the timeline of events, but also to determine the final resting place of the plane. This new evidence, coupled with what we already know from years prior, may allow to not only determine a motive and probable cause, but to also finally find the plane and its black boxes.
Although we have made some progress in uncovering the secrets of MH370 over the years, there is still much more to discover at the depths of the southern Indian Ocean. Despite the uncertainty, there remains a glimmer of hope that finding the wreckage will ultimately provide closure and a definitive explanation for the fate of Malaysian Airlines 370. With the facts in hand, we will be able to finally put an end to speculation and better understand what occurred on that fateful day.
The paper by Gerard Mendoza Ferrandis can be downloaded here
@Gerard,
Welcome to the blog!
Many thanks for your guest post “A Comprehensive Overview on the Ongoing Search for MH370”.
I look forward to putting an end to all the speculation we are continuously barraged with and gaining a better understanding as to what exactly occurred on that fateful day.
Thank you very much for the opportunity, it’s been a pleasure.
Also, many thanks for all of your contributions to date and the ones to come!
Hi Richard,
Fascinated by your work. With the new flight path in red is there any explanation regarding all the turns in the SIO (after the holding pattern)? If a pilot was at the controls surely the most logical thing for them to do would be to fly in a straight line as far south as possible if their motivation was to sink the plane in a remote location? Also, what are the chances that the data units from both black boxes would be unreadable after being on the ocean floor for over 9 years under immense pressure? The only precedent we have was AF447 where both black box modules functioned correctly after retrieval but that was 2 years, not 9.
@Leon,
Welcome to the blog!
There are several possible explanations why the flight path did not follow a straight line:
(a) The aircraft had a malfunction with the rudder or steering system.
(b) The pilot was suffering from confusion or orientation problems brought on by hypoxia.
(c) The pilot wanted to check if he was being followed.
(d) The pilot was changing his mind as to his next goal or wanted time to think before committing to a particular course.
I agree with you however that it is more likely that there was a straight line flight to an ultimate target point.
Andy Sherrell of Ocean Infinity and Peter Foley formerly with the ATSB have both suggested in their review of our work, that instead of following every WSPR detection, we should only follow the key WSPR detections with multiple intersecting anomalies and show a probability heat map based on a set of flight paths that match the key WSPR detections coupled together with the Inmarsat satellite data and the Boeing aircraft performance and fuel data.
With regard to your question about the black boxes, the memory is non volatile, does not require any power and can last in excess of 10 years as long as it has not been physically damaged.
On the Netflix show about mh370 There are a couple of stories of what happened The show is called “mh370 the plane that disappeared” One of them is that two russian guys hijacked it
Dear Richard, firstly thanks for all your inputs throughout these years regarding MH370. I have been constantly following your leads. Recently, I watched the netflix documentary and came across an important point regarding a phone call which was made after the flight’s disappearance, from a passenger to his daughter. Unfortunately, nothing much was shown regarding this in the documentary. Hence it would be really helpful if you could provide some more insight into it in your next article.
many thanks
@Manoj,
Welcome to the blog!
I have seen the Netflix documentary series, but I did not see the call from a passenger to his daughter. Can you point me to which of the three series and at what time in the documentary please?
Hello Richard, first time here and not an expert, I had the same question. I hope it’s ok if I jump in.
It’s in the first Netflix episode (the only one I’ve watched, the other two seem to be completely conspiracy theory crap).
It’s at around 20 minutes and 32 seconds in. Here’s a little transcript:
[Reporter’s voice]: “Some relatives of the missing passengers say they’ve called their loved ones’ cell phones, and instead of going straight to voicemail the phones continue to ring.”
[Jiang Hui, son of MH370 passenger, in Mandarin]: “Suddenly, there was a daughter of a passenger running toward us. We could see her phone was showing an incoming call. Uh, it was displaying “Papa.” She said, “What should I do?” I shouted back to her, “Pick up the call!” But sadly, when she tried to pick up the phone, it stopped ringing.”
“Many of us tried to call our families on the plane. In many of those calls, there was a connection and a ringtone. We requested that Malaysia Airlines follow the lead on the connected calls. But their replies were always the same. They didn’t have the technology to trace it further. Um, it was incomprehensible to us, the families, here was the easiest way to locate the passengers and the plane.”
Obviously at this time, the plane was still in the air. I don’t fully understand how a cell phone from a plane connects when it’s in the air, if it’s reliant on the plane itself to provide a connection or if it can reach cell towers on the ground. I guess at this point the plane’s electricity etc was turned back on, so maybe the connection was via the plane somehow?
My question is, would those phone records contain possible useful data? And my second question, which no one can answer, whether anyone other than the perpetrator could have been alive at that point to call out.
Thank you.
I too, am really interested in your take on this. How would this be possible?
@Becca Risman,
Please see my answer to Hazel:
https://www.mh370search.com/2022/09/08/mh370-detection-and-tracking/comment-page-1/#comment-1992
This scene from the documentary struck me as bizarre. Why would the family member not immediately answer the phone? What possible reason could there be NOT to answer it?
My understanding is that while MH370 was still within range of cell phone towers, passengers could theoretically have turned their phones on and made calls. Indeed, if any were aware that something was clearly wrong with the flight (e.g. oxygen masks deploy, copilot appears locked out of the cockpit and is banging frantically on the door), they might well attempt to call their family or emergency authorities to report something wrong.
Richard stated that the passenger oxygen masks last 20 minutes so it seems plausible some would have tried to make a call under such extreme and unusual circumstances.
Richard if another search happens will you be with search team to help
@Harry,
Welcome to the blog!
The ship might be unmanned and remotely operated.
Richard Btw will there be a search this year or next?
@Harry,
The next search will be in the next Southern Hemisphere summer, so it could be late 2023 or early 2024.
Hi There,
I am trying to check if somebody is expert with climate scientist, wanted to know if somebody have a record of the sea vibration signal or do calculation on air vibration during this happen?
@Harry,
At the earliest late in 2023, failing that early in 2024.
Richard since the start of this year has there been any developments excluding the Netflix documentary
Dear Richard: Does the Independent Group still exist? I would like to contact Peter Foley or someone associated with that group. I spent 60 days on the ADV Ocean Shield with the TPL-25 and Bluefin 21 searching for MH-370 and would like to offer my thoughts on any new underwater search. I am retired. I am not looking to get paid or for any publicity.
@Curt Newport,
I was a founder member of the Independent Group and it still exists.
Pete Foley was not a member, but I can pass your email address to him if you wish.
@All,
The information on the primary and secondary civilian and military radar given in the Malaysian Safety Investigation Report is incomplete and contradictory.
1. Malaysian Civilian Primary Terminal Area Radar and co-mounted Civilian Secondary Surveillance Radar.
There are three Malaysian Civilian Primary Radar Terminal Area Radar sites and three co-mounted Civilian Secondary Surveillance Terminal Area Radar sites:
(a) Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) Terminal Area Radar (TAR).
(b) Kota Baru Airport TAR.
(c) Butterworth RMAF Airport TAR (acting also for Penang Airport TAR).
These radars are ATC Approach Radars with co-mounted SSR and Primary Antennas. The nominal range of the primary radars are 60nmi. The nominal range of the SSR is 200 nmi but with the Transponder switched off this data was unavailable. There are Malaysian Civilian TAR provided data points on average every 10 seconds up to 18:00:51 UTC.
2. Malaysian Civilian Primary Regional Surveillance Radar.
There is one Malaysian Civilian Primary Regional Surveillance Radar site and one co-mounted Civilian Secondary Surveillance Regional Radar:
(a) Genting RSR.
The nominal range of the primary radars is 165nmi.
3. Malaysian Military Primary Regional Surveillance Radar.
There is one Malaysian Military Primary Regional Surveillance Radar:
(a) Western Hill, Penang Island.
The nominal range of the primary radars is 250nmi.
We have all the raw data for all the Civilian Primary and Secondary Terminal Area and Regional Radar sites, but the raw data for the Military Primary Radar has never been released. We also have the complete official raw ADS-B data file, raw ACARS data log and raw Inmarsat data log. There is a mismatch between the civilian radar data, ADS-B data, ACARS data from MH370 and the Inmarsat BTO and BFO data.
There was no data available from the Military Primary Radars in Thailand, Indonesia or Car Nicobar Island (India). The Military in both India and Indonesia admitted that their radar systems were switched off at night in times of peace or for maintenance work.
4. DSTG Bayesian Methods MH370 Search.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/xq6psc0h9lnt23a/DSTG%20Bayesian_Methods_MH370_Search_3Dec2015.pdf?dl=0
In Chapter 4 the primary radar data supplied by Malaysia is discussed. In particular on page 17 it is noted “The radar data contains regular estimates of latitude, longitude and altitude at 10 second intervals from 16:42:27 to 18:01:49. A single additional latitude and longitude position was reported at 18:22:12.”
In addition on page 18 it is noted “The final reported position from radar was at very long range from the sensor and there was a long time delay between it and the penultimate radar report. This report is at long range and it is likely to have rather poor accuracy because the angular errors translate to large location errors at long range. The radar report at 18:22 is closer to the penultimate report at 18:02 than the filter speed predicts. Also, it was observed that the range ring derived from the timing measurements at 18:25 and 18:28 are closer to the 18:02 report than predictions based on either the 18:02 filtered speed or the 18:22 filtered speed.”
Finally on page 19 it is noted “The 18:22 radar observation was not used quantitatively because the latitude and longitude derived from it are likely to be less accurate at long range and the aircraft may have manoeuvred prior to 18:22. The radar observation was deemed to indicate that the aircraft did not turn between 18:02 and 18:22, but the numerical values were not used. Instead, a prior was defined at 18:01 at the penultimate radar point using the output of the Kalman filter described above.”
According to the DSTG, there is no 10 second radar data after 18:01:49 UTC.
There is a mismatch between the DSTG and the Malaysian Safety Investigation Report page 9 “At 1801:59 UTC [0201:59 MYT] the data showed the “blip” on a heading of 022°, speed of 492 kt and altitude at 4,800 ft. This is supported by the “blip” detected by Military radar in the area of Pulau Perak at altitude 4,800 ft at 1801:59 UTC [0201:59 MYT]. At 1803:09 UTC [0203:09 MYT] the “blip” disappeared, only to reappear at 1815:25 UTC [0215:25 MYT] until 1822:12 UTC [0222:12 MYT], about 195 nm from Butterworth, on a heading of 285°, speed of 516 kt and at an altitude of 29,500 ft.”
There is a mismatch between the single Military Primary Radar data at 18:22:12 UTC and the Inmarsat satellite BTO and BFO data as noted by the DSTG.
The DSTG decided to use a prior at 18:01 UTC.
We use a prior defined by the Malaysian Civilian Primary Radar data at 18:00 UTC to synchronise with the WSPR transmissions every 2 minutes at 1 second past every even minute.
On page 4 of the report it says:
“The holding pattern also shows that the previous turns made by the plane would most likely have been performed manually by the captain, rather than automatically by the autopilot”.
This is incorrect, as it has not yet been ascertained who was the pilot-flying at the time of the holding pattern.
It is known that the pilot-flying during the ascent to 35,000 feet was the First Officer.
It is not known who made the decision to turn the plane back, and it is not known who was the pilot-flying at the time of the air turnback.
It is known that the pilot navigating at the time of the last contact with KL ATC was the Captain.
There is currently no means of knowing who was flying the plane at the time of the holding pattern, so a more reasonable statement, based on the evidence currently available would be:
“The holding pattern also shows that the previous turns made by the plane would most likely have been performed manually by the pilot flying, rather than automatically by the autopilot”.
According to the MH370 Safety Investigation Report, the pilot flying at the time of the air turn-back was the Captain, or the First Officer or a Third Party, so it seems reasonable to assume that the pilot-flying at the time of the holding pattern was, in order of decreasing probability, the First Officer, The Captain, a third party who was aboard the plane, or that the plane at that stage was under remote management by an external third party.
Thank you for clarifying what is reliably known about the Malaysian radar data. I do not believe the Malaysian authorities have data for the Malacca Strait. I have been working with the communication from a unit on Perak island to the cockpit printer of MH370, which went unanswered, as being reliable. Then the Inmarsat data. I believe after his series of turns around Perang Island – sentimentality or to see if they were scrambling the jets at Butterworth Airforce Base – he flew visually using the lighthouse on Perak Island and then the Indonesian coastline confirmed by King William III lighthouse on Breueh Island.
@TommyL,
As editor of this web site, I disagree. I defer to the author for his opinion.
You admit there are 4 theoretical possibilities of who was flying MH370 after the diversion.
You agree that one of those 4 possibilities is Captain Zaharie Shah.
On the same page, to which you refer, you will read that at the start of the section titled “Putting The Pieces Together” the prevailing hypothesis is that it was a murder suicide by the Captain.
The data found on Captain Zaharie Shah’s home flight simulator is at the very least a smoking gun.
The fact that Captain Zaharie Shah was against the corruption of the then Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is meanwhile serving a prison sentence for corruption estimated at $700 M into his own bank account in the 1MDB scandal, has been established by a court of law.
The fact that Captain Zaharie Shah had opportunity, motive and means to hijack his own aircraft has been established.
The fact that the timing between the last ACARS message and the disabling the ACARS system, disabling the transponders, crossing into Vietnam airspace and the diversion back over Malaysia allowed very little time for anyone else to hijack the aircraft has been established.
The fact that no hijacker or terrorist group has ever made any public demand has been established.
The WSPR research has shown that there was an active pilot and the aircraft made various turns and climbs following diversion.
It is a bona fide hypothesis and not an “incorrect” statement to have a working hypothesis that the perpetrator was Captain Zaharie Shah.
The article states: “This theory attempts to reconcile the facts with the evidence recovered but cannot be validated until the black boxes are found.”
The article states: “Speculation is Worthless Without Proof”.
With regard to “Speculation is Worthless Without Proof”,
I did speculate as to who had control of 9M MRO after the holding pattern, based on the very limited evidence that is available.
There is no evidence that anybody other than the First Officer had control of the plane at any time after it left Kuala Lumpur.
There is evidence that the Captain failed to make contact with Ho Chi Minh ATC and failed to repeat to KL ATC the frequency on which he was supposed to contact HCM.
There is also evidence that the First Officer’s mobile phone was switched on at the time the plane passed Penang.
While recovery of the wreckage is very important, and will help to bring closure for the relatives and friends of those on board, it makes complete sense for Interpol and any other criminal investigators to focus, in the interim, on the period between when the Captain repeated the flight level without being asked to, and the moment the plane stopped communicating.
The key unresolved question from that brief period is whether or not the Captain failed to contact HCM by his own choice, as part of a fiendish suicide/murder plot, or whether he failed to do so because he was unable to.
While a lot of speculation has focussed on the former, it is, in my opinion, slightly more likely, based on the available evidence from the flight, that he was unable to communicate with HCM, and that is why the First Officer, most probably, turned the plane around, either by his own choice or under instruction from the Captain or a third party.
This could, potentially, explain why the First Officer, also unable to communicate using the plane’s communications systems, switched on his mobile phone and may have attempted to use it to request assistance and permission for an emergency landing at Penang / Butterworth.
I fully acccept and understand that you and the author of the latest report, Gerard Mendoza Ferrandis, are of the opinion that it is more likely that the Captain took control of the plane.
Richard have you had any independent validation of WSPR yet. Can you refer us to that. Also did you ever publish your technical paper so others can reproduce your data?
@Cameron Townshend,
Welcome to the blog!
We are in the middle of a large scale study and independent validation of WSPR. Once the study is complete from our side, the plan is to send all our data to a team at Liverpool University to allow them to reproduce our results. The process will take another 3 months.
Hi Richard,
This is my first time on the site and I give massive congratulations for what you have right now. I am a second year aerospace engineer studying at Liverpool University and would love to get involved wherever possible, please get in touch if you need.
@Meiven Moreno,
Many thanks for your offer of support.
I advise you to contact Prof. Simon Maskell at Liverpool University who is fully informed of our research.
I hope the candidate site you propose will contain the wreckage, I don’t necessarily believe it will be found further north but I do support your analysis, I hope you can prove me and anyone else wrong, I’m careful to understand the predicted location is just a hypothesis based on circumstantial evidence and it’s not proven, I fully support all the effort you’ve put in and looking forward to a new search soon.
@Mike R,
You are correct that the MH370 flight path analysis based on WSPR technology is a hypothesis, but it is not based on “circumstantial evidence” as you claim.
The hypothesis is based on a statistical analysis of the historic WSPRnet database. The WSPRnet database provides a large number of global radio transmissions. The fact that a radio transmission has been received is proven by the exchange of the WSPR protocol.
The null hypothesis is: WSPRnet links show statistically significant anomalies when an aircraft is not on the great circle path between the transmitter and receiver.
The alternative hypothesis is: WSPRnet links show statistically significant anomalies when an aircraft is on the great circle path between the transmitter and receiver.
The goal is to demonstrate a statistically significant number of examples of the alternative hypothesis and show that the alternative hypothesis is generally true, whilst at the same time demonstrate a statistically significant number of examples of the null hypothesis and show that the null hypothesis is generally false.
@All,
A new article by Geoffrey Thomas of airlineratings.com titled “MH370: End Destructive Bickering and Nonsense”
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/mh370-end-destructive-bickering-and-nonsense/
On the ninth anniversary of the loss of MH370, I appeal for all official and independent investigators to work together to support a new underwater search and help solve the mystery of MH370.
I am already working together with Blaine Gibson, Charitha Pattiaratchi, Prof. Simon Maskell, Andy Sherrell, Pete Foley and many others to achieve the goal of finding MH370 and determining the cause of the disappearance.
I invite others to join us.
@All,
Geoffrey Thomas of airlineratings.com has published a link to the article by Gerard Mendoza Ferrandis titled “A Comprehensive Overview on the Ongoing Search for MH370” and featured in this post.
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/mh370-a-comprehensive-overview/
It is an honour to have my work read and published by Geoffrey Thomas. Thank you for the support.
@Gerard,
You deserve the recognition!
You kept an open mind and you did your homework.
Shouldn’t Ocean Infinity request for more information from the Malaysian government before initiating a search, it sounds like the most logical thing do, the Malaysian Royal Air Force never published the military radar data that shows the turnback, they also never released the full data of the Captain’s simulator, however I feel the latter is insufficient to help us start a new search while I believe the former to be more significant to the event.
@Mike R,
I agree that it would be helpful that all investigators share all the information they have publicly. You mention the Malaysian military radar and the full FBI report on the simulator data as two examples of information not made public.
I do not agree that disclosure of this information is a prerequisite for a new search.
@All,
Are there any radio communications with MH370 that have not been publicly disclosed?
SATCOM communications would be logged and there were none in the log from MH370 in the timeframe of the aircraft’s disappearance.
VHF radio communications would have been picked up by others and VHF radio frequencies are often monitored, but VHF only works over shorter distances. VHF radio uses the frequencies 118.000 MHz to 136.975 MHz in 25 KHz steps, which allows 759 different frequencies.
HF radio communications is a different matter.
HF radio allow long distance transmissions and uses the frequencies 2.000 MHz to 29.999 MHz in 1 KHz steps. You would have to continuously monitor 28,000 different frequencies in order to be sure to pick up every HF radio communication. A perpetrator would have to have a designated frequency by prior agreement or a perpetrator could demand a frequency allocation to negotiate. A pilot would know the designated frequencies to communicate with base operations or trans oceanic air traffic controllers.
The chances of a HF radio communication being picked up by others at a particular time on a particular frequency is small. It is possible though, that someone somewhere monitored a HF radio communication by MH370 following its diversion.
Two cases to consider. Case-1: If the perpetrator was acting alone to hide the flight path and achieve deniability, then radio-silence may have the goal. Case-2 (somewhat popular but totally without evidence) is some negotiations with a “ground team” typically for diversion to Xmas Island. Case-2 is looking much less realistic these days, but we have to concede not impossible. In other words, I’d say ~99% we witnessed an act of air piracy, but the exact nature of the “plan” we are less clear, though I’d say 80+% Case-1.
re:”Are there any radio communications with MH370 that have not been publicly disclosed?”
On the 9th March 2014 the New Straits Times reported that the captain of a commercial flight to Tokyo (Narita), at the request of HCM air traffic control, made brief contact with MH370 on an emergency freqeuency.
The pilot noted that he heard no Mayday call from MH370, that there was a lot of static and that he heard mumbling. He also noted that his radio transmission would have been picked up by any other aircraft or naval vessels in the vicinity.
While not certain, he was fairly confident that the mumbling voice was that of the First Officer, rather than the Captain.
At the time, *just after 1.30″, he was thirty minutes ahead of MH370’s scheduled position.
By then the planes would have been over 200 miles apart and MH370 was already heading in the opposite direction, which might explain the static and why contact was lost after a short period.
There can be any number of speculations as to why the First Officer was heard ‘mumbling’, but the most likely explanation (ie greater than 50% probabilty) would be that he was wearing an oxygen mask.
@All,
Geoffrey Thomas at airlineratings.com has published an article titled “MH370 Expert slams new Netflix series”:
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/mh370-expert-slams-new-netflix-series/
Is there any chance the autopilot was simply set to an unreachable destination like AQ YCSK? Unlike most of the planet, there are very few waypoints that this flight could have been heading for. Why not simulate them all?
@Kevin English,
Welcome to the blog!
I undertook an analysis of all waypoints in 2016. You can view a copy in the archive section of this website and sub-section Flight Path Analysis:
1st February 2016 – Comparison of MH370 Flight Paths Based on Waypoints – Duncan Steel’s Blog
@All,
Geoffrey Thomas at airlineratings.com has published my list of the 10 major errors in the Netflix documentary series:
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/ten-major-errors-in-netflix-mh370-documentary/
How easy is it for the pilot to turn off the black boxes? If it’s possible for the pilot to turn off the black boxes, wouldn’t Zaharie likely have done that, considering all the effort he apparently put into avoiding detection?
@Katrine,
Welcome to the blog!
It is not possible for the pilot to switch off the black boxes.
Dear Richard, Thank you for all the work you are doing and trying to solve the big miracle around MH370. I listened to the podcast “Flugforensik” by Benjamin Denes and Andreas Spaeth about the case. In the podcast, it is said that it would not be possible to completely switch off the ACARS system from the cockpit for this type of Boeing777, but it would be necessary to enter the avionics room. Do you share this opinion? I think that it is very important for the line of events. And please allow me a second question: In the (more serious) media coverage, I find contradictory information of the private flight simulator activity of the Captain. Sometimes it is written that he practiced a similar route, ending in the SIP going out of fuel. Other reports say that this is not correct, as he would have practiced landing on a short runway on an island in the SIO. These are different versions. Do you know which one is correct and where this can be verified?
Please keep going with your work! I hope you will be successful!
@Jana,
Welcome to the blog!
It is very simple to close down the Inmarsat satellite connection and hence the ACARS reporting that runs via the satellite connection from the cockpit.
We have the data from the home flight simulator of Captain Zaharie Shah, which shows a simulation until zero fuel and nowhere near any island in the SIO.
ACARS can be stopped from the cockpit computer menu, so your source is wrong. Many of us believe that was actually done. As Richard mentions, the other option is to cut off SATCOM from the cockpit, by cutting off LEFT BUS electric circuit.
@TBill,
You do not have to power down the SATCOM to stop ACARS transmissions via the SATCOM. You can logoff the SATCOM from the current satellite connection and simply not logon to the next satellite available.
Richard – it is hard to get confirmation from Boeing, but my understanding from past discussions, is the Rt XFER BUS, if depowered, cuts power to the DFDR. LT XFER Bus, if depowered, cuts CVR. Not to mention EE Bay breakers, if the perp wanted to go down there.
@TBill,
The Boeing Manual confirms that the Cockpit Voice Recorder is powered from the 115V AC Left Transfer Bus and the the Flight Data Recorder is powered from the 115V AC Right Transfer Bus.
@All,
There is universal condemnation of the Netflix MH370 documentary series.
Naren of the MH370 next of kin has published this damning review:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0sapb1ctgpmzd0e/Naren%20Review%20of%20Netflix%20MH370%20Documentary%20Series.pdf?dl=0
Mike Exner of the Independent Group (IG) has published this damning review:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ukq7zwpgiug2oh1/Exner%20Review%20of%20Netflix%20MH370%20Documentary%20Series.pdf?dl=0
Geoffrey Thomas of airlineratings.com has published these two damning reviews:
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/mh370-expert-slams-new-netflix-series/
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/ten-major-errors-in-netflix-mh370-documentary/
Alec Bojalad a TV critic has published this damning review:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/s1ibl4tbufyipg0/What%20Netflix%27s%20Malaysia%20Airlines%20Flight%20MH370%20Documentary%20Gets%20Wrong%20%7C%20Den%20of%20Geek.pdf?dl=0
Hi Richard, I’m a big fan of your work.
Do you believe the aircraft entered the water at a nearly vertical angle?
I saw a short video on YouTube which said a mathematician had modeled the crash and at a vertical angle, there is much less debris breakup – meaning there would be less debris found – explaining how we have only found some debris.
@Rory Ingram,
Welcome to the blog!
I do not believe the angle was nearly vertical, but very steep none the less.
I have worked on many military crash investigations. If in fact the aircraft hit the water at high speed and a high angle of attack, I can state from previous experience that the debris field might be very small; far less than Air India Flight 182, which I worked on. That one was about 10 nm x 5 nm.
@All,
A new article by Geoffrey Thomas of airlineratings.com titled: “MH370 Debris: Now for the Facts”.
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/mh370-debris-now-for-the-facts/
“The recent MH370 “show” broadcast by Netflix seriously questioned the integrity of the debris from the downed Boeing 777 and that of the many people who found the pieces.”
“Blaine has been vilified by a number of people who have suggested either directly or indirectly, that he is just seeking publicity and incredibly “planting” debris.”
“Nothing could be further from the truth.”
“The reality is so very different that when the truth emerges it’s almost not recognisable.”
@All,
A new article by Alex Berezow, PhD, Executive Editor | Big Think titled: “What happened to Flight MH370? Don’t believe what Netflix’s documentary tells you”
https://bigthink.com/the-present/what-happened-flight-mh370-netflix-documentary/
“Unless it’s on National Geographic, I am deeply skeptical of documentaries. It seems that many films that label themselves as such are primarily about presenting a polished, highly persuasive narrative — but whether that narrative is true is of secondary importance.”
“Richard Godfrey, an avionics expert who has studied MH370 for nearly a decade and has extensive experience designing and operating electronic systems for commercial and military aircraft, told Big Think in an interview, ‘Most evidence points to a murder-suicide by the Captain Zaharie Shah, although most evidence is insufficient to stand up in a court of law.'”
“But instead of giving the 239 suffering families and the public at large a true story, Netflix exploited the pain caused by a horrifying tragedy to push lies and conspiracies to boost its viewership. Shame on them.”
Dear Richard,
The mystery surrounding this tragedy has fascinated me from day one and I admire your work enormously.
There is one aspect that I cannot get my head around, and that relates to Captain Zaharie Shah from a psychological perspective, and his possible motivation. It is known that during the year prior to MH370 going missing he had become more politically involved, and was opposed to the Malaysian government’s arrest of a member of the opposition party on sodomy charges, who I believe was a distant relative. The popular hypothesis is that his actions were politically motivated.
As I understand it, the “practice” flight on his home simulator was taken a month before this arrest occurred. The arrest happened on the morning of the flight. This may explain a sudden emotionally charged, impulsive decision to hijack is own plane that same day, but how does it explain his motivation a month prior to practice a similar murderous route on his simulator? What was his motivation at that point?
What puzzles me most is that in hijacking his own plane, it seems to me he could only have had one of three main motives:
1) to force some kind of outcome or solution to his grievance, whatever that was and whoever it was with. Surely this would have required him to communicate from the cockpit with somebody on the ground. Would it have been possible for him to have communicated privately from the cockpit, without that conversation being heard by anybody else over the radio and revealed to the public by now?
2) An act of revenge or to make some sort of statement. But this only makes sense if he had claimed responsibility for doing so, and as far as we know, he didn’t leave a note or communicate anything at all to make any motivation known.
3) He was a lunatic and had no logical reason at all for what he did. Except he was not known to suffer from any mental illness, had a spotless professional record, was well respected amongst his colleagues and was an active member of the community. This seems so at odds with the description of everyone who knew him.
I apologise if this is a stupid question, I’m not a scientist or aviation expert… is it possible that all of the navigation, tracking and communication equipment on the plane malfunctioned, but the engines kept running? So he turned back and flew manually but essentially blind towards Malaysia, where he knew the lay of the land better, but was unable to put in a mayday call, and due to cloud cover couldn’t see to land? Could he have simply got lost in the dead of night over the ocean with no visual reference points, and didn’t give up until the plane ran out of fuel? With my very unexpert perspective, that makes more sense to me than a very elaborate plan to disappear a plane and murder all those people for no apparent reason. Perhaps you have a moment to read this and give your thoughts.
In any case, I sincerely hope that all your hard work results in a renewed search very soon.
@Laura,
Welcome to the blog!
Anwar Ibraham was first detained without trial in 1998. There is a long history behind government corruption in Malaysia and attempts by the government to prevent political opposition. Captain Zaharie Shah was a active supporter of the opposition party led by Anwar Ibraham.
It is not possible to ensure privacy when using the aircraft communications systems. With 3 VHF radio systems, 2 HF radio system and a satellite telephone it is highly unlikely that all 6 communication systems stopped working at the same time, whilst at the same time the aircraft managed to fly for 7 hours 37 minutes.
I have asked a professional psychiatrist to profile Captain Zaharie Shah and the conclusion was that there is no certain psychological evidence for a murder/suicide hijack.
There are numerous navigation systems on a Boeing 777 with redundancy and backup, so it is not possible for an aircraft like MH370 to simply get lost. It is possible that a pilot suffering from the effects of hypoxia can become disoriented.
That’s so interesting. Makes me think the Malaysian government know more than they are letting on. He must have somehow stated his intent else the entire thing served no purpose other than mass murder. Tragic. Those poor families need answers after so long and I hope with your help they will be given them.
Hello, I am very thankful for all you guys have done. You are helping these families and the world find closure. I have seen the 60 minutes clip of the guy who used radio signals to find the crash location, and he is very smart. Does anyone know exactly when ocean infinity will start their search? And when/if they find the crash and black boxes, will they share them immediately? Thank you all for all you have done, you are doing gods work.
Hello all, how do we know when we search the new pinpointed area the parts will not be already scattered all across the ocean? Thanks.
@Charles McLaughlin,
The parts either float in which case they will be potentially scattered all across the Indian Ocean, or the parts sink in which case they eventually land on the sea floor.
The parts that sink may be spread by underwater currents over a wide area. For example, the debris field of AF447 covered a main area of 600 m x 200 m.
Once parts that sink get stuck in sand or mud on the sea floor they seldom move. The average part recovered weighed around 5 kg (11 lbs) and this is sufficient weight to keep a part in place on the sea floor.
Hi Richard, I just watched the Netflix show, don’t really have too much of an opinion in a couple of hours of editing but the three things that did get me wondering was the lack of personal belongings used in forensics, were all the bits of wreckage analyzed as coming from the same craft and the woman from Florida seemed to make a pretty compelling case of found wreckage that was never shown as being investigated?
Poor people 🙁
@Robert Manuell,
1. 56 items of personal belongings have been recovered, listed, photographed and shown privately to the next of kin. Only a few items have been identified.
2. 39 items of aircraft debris have been recovered and handed in to the authorities. Not all have been analysed. 21 items have been confirmed from MH370 or from a Boeing 777. As there has been only one Boeing 777 to have crashed in the Southern Indian Ocean, items found from a Boeing 777 are highly likely to be from MH370. 11 items have been confirmed from part numbers or stencil marks as confirmed or almost certain from MH370. A further 10 items are possibly from MH370 and the provenance of 8 items has either not been analysed or could not be determined.
3. The satellite imagery from Tomnod in the South China Sea is too poor a resolution to be definitive and that it depicts MH370. The location contradicts the floating debris finds, radar data, satellite data and mobile phone detection evidence.
Hi Richard,
Thank you for your work on this, I am a strong supporter. I didn’t bother finishing the netflix series due to its saturation of nonsense.
A few quick points, and questions
Your analysis suggests a flight route with several clear manual inputs for changes of direction as the flight progressed south, as opposed to the more straight track hypothesis suggested by early analysis and Zaharie’s flight sim. As you say this suggests an active pilot throughout.
1. However these manipulations to me don’t suggest a pilot who has set himself the objective of hiding the plane in the southern indian ocean (which I have always believed), as surely the pilot could have just set himself on a straight track down in the direction he desired, without zigzagging the plane all over the place. It also doesn’t make sense to me that the pilot would be suffering the effects of hypoxia for such a long period of time. What is your best guess as to why there are so many manipulations?
2. In other cases of pilot suicide as well there were key indications that the pilot both had the intention and searched the means for carrying out what they were planning. I.e. Andreas Lubitz in the Germanwings case, had found to have searched how to secure a cockpit door (as well as how to commit suicide). In the case of silk air 185 captain tsu had lost lost 1.2 million in the markets which he could not repay – a fairly clear motive. You are of the view that this could have been politically motivated, however Zaharie never made these intentions clear, as to why he might undertake the actions that he did, which leaves me highly sceptical to this. He also doesn’t seem to have displayed suicidal tendencies, or searched for additional means to support his plan e.g. turning off acars. Why do you think there might be such a dearth of evidence throughout on means and motivation?
3. I have always thought the flight path of MH370 looks eerily similar to Varig flight 254, which ended up going west and then south instead of north, just like MH370. Is there a set of circumstances at all where a combined electrical fault would knock out the transponder and flight navigation systems leaving the pilots disorientated as to their position, and they end up getting lost?
4. If the pilot suicide theory is true, is there any usefulness the wreckage will present? I.e the CVR would only go back a certain amount of time as far as I’m aware, leaving the critical parts of the flight without voice recording evidence.
Many thanks
Typically CVRs only record the last 30 m of cockpit conversations.
@Curt Newport,
The Boeing 777 CVR records the last 2 hours of cockpit voice.
If the cockpit is silent for 2 hours, then you will hear nothing.
The recording overrides previous recordings.
@Joe Stanley,
@Welcome to the blog!
1. You ask why so many manipulations in the flight path?
There are many possible reasons including uncertainty and disorientation. The effects of hypoxia do not fade that fast.
Andy Sherrell of Ocean Infinity and Pete Foley ex ATSB have suggested that the manipulations could be an artefact of the WSPR technology. Their suggestion is to take only the rock solid WSPR anomaly detections with multiple intersecting links and show a range of possible constant speed straight and level flight paths.
Whilst I agree that it is more likely that a straight flight path was flown, it is not impossible that there were turns or even climbs/descents and changes in speed.
2. Captain Zaharie Shah’s favourite poem was about a lone soldier. He may have seen himself as such:
“The soldier fought his battle silently.
Not his the strife that stays for set of sun;
It seemed this warfare never might be done;
Through glaring day and blinding night fought he.
There came no hand to help, no eye to see;
No herald’s voice proclaimed the fight begun;
No trumpet, when the bitter field was won,
Sounded abroad the soldier’s victory.
As if the struggle had been light, he went,
Gladly, life’s common road a little space;
Nor any knew how his heart’s blood was spent;
Yet there were some who after testified
They saw a glory grow upon his face;
And all men praised the soldier when he died.”
3. The Boeing 777 has many redundant navigation systems. In the case of Varig 254 the pilot’s gave the wrong bearing into the flight management system. As mentioned previously, hypoxia can cause disorientation.
4. The CVR will most likely not reveal much, but the FDR will have recorded the whole flight.
This poem is mind blowing. It sheds a whole new light on his psychology. Thank you for posting this, I don’t believe it is widely known in the public domain. Of all the far fetched conspiracy nonsense the Netflix “documentary” raises, I can’t believe this smoking gun wasn’t included at all (along with your factual, scientific and expert analysis). This is the only psychological explanation I have ever come across that might explain his actions. May I ask how you know this was his favourite poem? It’s so very sad, but also so telling.
@Laura,
You ask how do I know it was Captain Zaharie Shah’s favourite poem?
It is the only poem Captain Zaharie Shah posted in social media. In his various Facebook accounts you will find a number of worrying quotes.
A commenter named Matt first alerted me in 2014 and stated: “I feel it necessary, in light of those claiming that Zaharie seemingly exhibited NOTHING that would give one reason for concern, to share just a few of his MANY worrisome (in hindsight) posts/commentaries. Here are four examples that trouble me, greatly.
“there is a rebel in each and everyone of us. let it out! don’t waste your life on mundane life style. When is it enough?”
“General Elections 2013 are over, so its time they try to dismantle us. We are not going to be quiet.”
“If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor. – Desmond Tutu”
”The SOLDIER FOUGHT HIS BATTLE SILENTLY
Not his the strife that stays for set of sun;
It seemed this warfare never might be done;
Through glaring day and blinding night fought he.
There came no hand to help, no eye to see;
No herald’s voice proclaimed the fight begun;
No trumpet, when the bitter field was won,
Sounded abroad the soldier’s victory.
As if the struggle had been light, he went,
Gladly, life’s common road a little space;
Nor any knew how his heart’s blood was spent;
Yet there were some who after testified
They saw a glory grow upon his face;
And all men praised the soldier when he died.”
The Pilgrim and Other Poems – Sophie Jewett (Ellen Burroughs) – 1896
Dante The Divine Comedy Paradise XXIX 91 “Non vi si pensa quanto sangue costa.” (You don’t think about how much blood it costs)
(capitals are from Matt’s comment)
Here is the Facebook post quoting the soldier poem:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2w4kv2sa8wunbjn/ZS%20Psychology%20Poem%20Quote.png?dl=0
I have archived 195 pages of Captain Zaharie Shah’s Facebook accounts and analysed them with a Criminal Psychologist. Although there are with hindsight some worrying quotes, there is nothing which allows you to draw a conclusion that he was in any way psychologically disturbed.
Just a thought. If Captain Shah had wanted to take the aircraft into the Southern Ocean, for whatever purpose, why do it on a flight to Beijing? Surely he would have had European destinations on his roster. He could have waited until he had a flight directly out over the Bay of Bengal, turned south and that would have been that. No pesky ATC or radars to worry about.
So why did it have to be THAT particular night?
@Jonathan Stoner,
Welcome to the blog!
Longer flights to Europeans destinations had more flight crew.
Much simpler a flight with a novice First Officer and no other more senior flight crew on board.
@All,
A new article by Patrick Fogerty of Collider is an excellent read and beautifully written:
https://collider.com/mh370-the-plane-that-disappeared-conspiracy-theories/
The article has been reviewed by Geoffrey Thomas at airlineratings.com:
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/another-trashing-of-netflixs-mh370-series/
@All,
Alex Braum sent me an email today with pictures of a debris item that she found on a beach in South Africa at 34.449807°S 20.652071°E on 13th November 2016. The find was made in a nature reserve which is closed to the public and you need a special permit to enter. There was a super moon on 14th November 2016, which was especially “super” because it’s the closest full moon to Earth since 1948. We won’t see another super moon like this until 2034. The tides and rip currents were manic and there was a lot of debris washed up on this particular beach.
She notified the ATSB who forwarded her photos and information to Malaysia, who subsequently collected the item in December 2016. We never heard anything more from Malaysia regarding their analysis of the debris item.
I was struck by the similarities to a debris item found in Tanzania by Paul Smithson in 2016 and a debris item found by a fisherman and handed to Blaine Gibson in Madagascar in 2018.
Here is a photo collage with high resolution pictures of all three debris items. You can zoom in on the individual photos to see the structure of the items in more detail:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5knmsxozjq2hlom/Tanzania%20Madagascar%20South%20Africa.pdf?dl=0
Those parts are definitely aircraft wreckage.
@All,
A new article by Geoffrey Thomas titled: “Netflix MH370 Series: Criticism Intensifies”
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/netflix-mh370-series-criticism-intensifies/?fbclid=IwAR1fSOKsagut6vz2hx18ML04JBivthgN1IJ6eWztQkj-xWTFM0mKcYIgls8
In a damming article on the Netflix MH370 series in The Times famous wreck hunter David Mearns, a British-resident US marine scientist is quoted via Twitter expressing his disappointment.
The series is “dominated by Jeff Wise and Florence de Changy, ridiculous and unsupported conspiracy theories” he wrote.
He added “Inmarsat is real, Blaine Gibson is real, the plane is in the southern Indian Ocean. Resume the underwater search.”
I had the privilege of meeting with David Mearns for 3 days at his home in England to give him a full briefing on MH370. So far he has not been asked by the authorities to help in the search for MH370.