A Comprehensive Overview on the Ongoing Search for MH370 by Gerard Mendoza Ferrandis.
On 8 March 2014, the greatest mystery in the history of aviation took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KUL) en route to Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK). How and why this plane ended up in the Indian Ocean is still unknown to this date; more than eight years after its disappearance. The scarcity of information regarding the route and wreckage location of the plane has only allowed for speculation, and the lack of a clear motive has left the families of the 239 people on board without closure.
However, a major breakthrough earlier this year has made it possible not only to completely fill in the gaps in the timeline of events, but also to determine the final resting place of the plane. This new evidence, coupled with what we already know from years prior, may allow to not only determine a motive and probable cause, but to also finally find the plane and its black boxes.
Although we have made some progress in uncovering the secrets of MH370 over the years, there is still much more to discover at the depths of the southern Indian Ocean. Despite the uncertainty, there remains a glimmer of hope that finding the wreckage will ultimately provide closure and a definitive explanation for the fate of Malaysian Airlines 370. With the facts in hand, we will be able to finally put an end to speculation and better understand what occurred on that fateful day.
The paper by Gerard Mendoza Ferrandis can be downloaded here
Comment Re: “We are currently tracking a Boeing 777 across the Indian Ocean”.
Would it be worthwhile chartering a Boeing 777 very similar in design and engine configuration to 9M-MRO to fly from Colombo to Perth, trying to get the pilot to replicate the holding pattern and the southward path over the currently projected MH370 crash region?
With help from Boeing and Rolls Royce engineers, it might be possible to construct a “9M MRO meteorological impact signature” for the plane, and for each of the engines. This could then be compared to historical Indian Ocean meteorological data for 7th/8th March 2014.
If you know what to look for, approximately where to look, and at what times, it may be that the vapour trail, for example, from each of the engines can be picked out from the weather data, and this, in conjunction with the WSPR/GDTAA analysis, might help to pinpoint the crash time and location of MH370.
If successful, it might be accepted as ‘credible new evidence”, permitting a new search to be authorised by the Malaysian authorities and other global stakeholders.
Nice idea to charter a Boeing 777 with Rolls Royce engines to replicate the estimated flight path of MH370 with a high level of authenticity.
Some analysts have already looked for vapour trails. The area of interest in the Indian Ocean does not have continuous coverage in the 7th/8th March 2014 timeframe. Some satellite coverage is marginal as the satellite footprint is at its limit in the area of interest.
The Malaysian authorities have never defined what they mean by credible new evidence, so it is not clear what they would accept or reject.
hi All, does anyone know when this search will be resumed? The government seems to be lethargic is reacting.
Welcome to the blog!
Ocean Infinity are planning to resume the underwater search in late 2023 or early 2024.
after watching some documentary TV show, and after all this year’s, rediscovered that there is still MH370 misterry ongoing… After, long time ago TV news, and info about the search, I almost forgotten about this case. But now I rediscovered it, and for a few days, I am reading all online available info.
This site is most serious of all, that I ever found online (not only connected with the subject). Big respect for Your devotion.
I will try to be short, and not too boring…
– After all info, that I have been read, available to me, doesn’t seem that Captain did Murder/Suicide of his passengers and himself .. doesn’t look like that type of person to me…
Maybe he vas ready to sacrifice for “some grater cause”, but not to remain unknown, and without big impact and echo behind his sacrifice… He was smarter than that! (by my humble conclusion)
– My short thoughts, at this moment will follow…
– if they, at the moment of crossing borders, and changing countries and aerial spaces had some collision, impact of some kind… (UAV, other aircraft, lightning strike…).. is there possibility to damage external airplane antennas and sensors for transmission of radio signals, and to lose signals and sensors for orientation… suffer some kind of damage to the DIGITAL cockpit screens, that give direction data!?
To me, looks like, that in the middle of the night, over the dark sea, something happened, that damaged communication/orientation … Pilot(s) tried to return to starting airport, without too much panic, and maybe they though that they are transmitting messages over radio (there was some recorded communication with another plane, described as “mumbling” in some reports..”)…
They turned around, and considering that was the night, and conditions, maybe they mistook town (were pilot was born, and copilots phone signal was recorded) for another town, and tried to find airport to land in an emergency, but they lost orientation and went over the ocean again…
– So (maybe) they searched, and searched for mainland and airport in wrong direction…it was a night..without sensors, no lights, no horizon…maybe cabin was damaged…no pressure, no indications… couldn’t lower the plane, without reading the correct altitude… risky… maybe, I am not a pilot…just maybe
-Waited a morning light, to see where they are…fuel was lower and lower … sun, light, but no land… preserved altitude to preserve fuel…air is thinner
– maybe, just maybe… no land, no fuel… I don’t know.. if engines stop, probably You loose hidraullic pressure, and manual commands, and can not prevent 150 tons heavy aircraft to ditch in the ocean, at steep angle?
– Maybe there was wind in the cabin, no oxygen, low visibility…no one records a satelite phone in critical moment, and what was it’s purpose… just maybe…
I don’t know, but to me, reading all online info, that I could in the last few days, that is something feasible to me …something that could happen that 8th march 2014.
There is possibility that at the end, pilots become heroes…that tried to save everybody onboard… after You find boxes, we will see… I never wanted to judge person, by some stories, without evidences…even then, I prefer to check twice… I always believe in people …
thanks in advance to Your response
Welcome to the blog and many thanks for the kind words!
There are two key items of information with regard to MH370:
(1) The Inmarsat satellite maintained contact with MH370 for 7 hours 38 minutes until 8th March 2014 00:19:37 UTC.
(2) The endurance for MH370, which was loaded with 49,600 kg of fuel in Kuala Lumpur, is calculated to have lasted around 7 hours 34 minutes (depending on altitude flown and aircraft configuration selected).
MH370 carried on flying for over 7 hours until fuel exhaustion. The aircraft was not involved in a collision and did not experience a catastrophic failure. MH370 made several turns and followed a flight path around Penang Island into the Malacca Strait, so the navigation system appears to have been functioning correctly after the diversion.
MH370 passed by a number of major airports at Kota Bharu, Penang, Langkawi, Phuket, Kuala Lumpur, Medan and Banda Aceh with a runway long enough for a Boeing 777, but no attempt was made at an emergency landing. There was no attempt to communicate using one of the 3 VHF radios, 2 HF radios or satellite phone or messaging system.
We do not have sufficient evidence to be able to know exactly what happened to MH370 and why. We need to find the wreckage and recover the Flight Data Recorder to help solve the mystery of MH370.
Good morning all! I was recently researching some sources of acoustic data and I ran across the hydro acoustic analysis of the HA01W CTBTO hydrophone. I did 30 years worth of acoustic analysis for the US Navy and and I am interested in doing my own analysis of the hydrophone data for this event to see if there is data that may have been over looked. Is it possible to get a copy of the actual acoustic recordings?
The notes on the analysis of the CTBTO hydrophone discuss the impact on the order of 5.6GJ of energy but I think that implies a nose first burn in from altitude. There is a possibility that it was a controlled flat unpowered landing similar to US airways 1549 which would make for a significantly quieter impact event. My navy experience with recordings of sinking’s tells me that that type of event would have a much different profile and timeline.
Welcome to the blog!
I can put you in touch with academics who have analysed the actual acoustic recordings from HA01 at Cape Leeuwin, which is a triangular set of hydrophones.
Here is a YouTube recording at HA01:
Do I have your permission to give out your email to these academics?
Also of interest is any acoustic recordings at HA04 Crozet Islands and HA08 Diego Garcia, which are also in the Indian Ocean.
Please do so, I would be very happy to assist if at all possible.
I have written to Tom Kunkle and Alec Duncan giving them your email address and asking after the HA01 CTBTO hydrophones data for the MH370 event. There are 3 hydrophones arranged in a triangular manner to be able to estimate the direction of an acoustic source.
Good to see the positive response from Alec Duncan and his support to get you the HA01 CTBTO hydrophone data you are looking for. Please keep us informed of progress.
How likely is it that the tyres would have burst on impact or exploded as the undercarriage sank to the ocean floor?
If the tyres exploded due to the sudden increase in pressure as the undercarriage sank then it might be that the hydroacoustic data contains more than just the sound of the plane hitting the water.
On the other hand, if the tyres did not burst on impact or explode as they sank, but deflated and remained attached to the undercarriage, then it might be that between them Goodyear, Michelin, Bridgestone and Dunlop could give some indication of the rate of decay or the tyre rubber at various depths and pressures in salt water after nine years.
Monitoring for microscopic traces of the decomposing tyres, in conjunction with other tracking data, might help to pinpoint the location and depth of the undercarriage.
All sealed items, generally termed tankage, will implode at depth. Oxygen bottles, fire extinguishers, fire suppression gas pressure vessels, hydraulic reservoirs as well as landing gear tyres are all candidates.
In 2016 Tom Kunkle of LANL asked for scientific and engineering opinion as to whether “tankage” (generic term here used for hollow stuff that might implode at depth) would violently implode or just sort of ooze closed. The mechanical engineers ran some code calculations and reported no implosion of metal tankage, just oozing. The Navy people were in favour of violent implosion, based on deep underwater operational experience.
The long-running clean up of Osborne Reef off Fort Lauderdale may have yielded some useful commercial, military and scientific data about the dispersal over time of decomposing tyres in shallow salt water.
It may be that some of the agencies and corporations involved have equipment and skills in detecting the presence and location of old submerged tyres.