Ocean Infinity presented a new MH370 underwater search proposal to Anthony Loke, the Malaysian Minister of Transport in Kuala Lumpur on 2nd May 2024. Anthony Loke said that based on discussions held on Thursday, the company had submitted a proposal paper along with evidence and information for examination by the relevant parties under his ministry.
Josh Broussard, the Chief Technology Officer, of Ocean Infinity led the team making the presentation, together with their Commercial Manager.
Pete Foley, the former ATSB search director, also attended the meeting in Malaysia. Pete has been campaigning for a new search for several years and is advising Ocean Infinity on the new search.
Prof. Simon Maskell, from Liverpool University, is a scientific advisor to Ocean Infinity and was also in attendance at the meeting. Simon leads a team investigating the possibility of using WSPR to detect and track aircraft. Simon plans to add the WSPR data to the particle filter developed by the Australian Defence Science and Technology Group (DSTG) described in their book titled “Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370” in order to refine the new MH370 search area.
The new search for MH370 is expected to start in November 2024. Anthony Loke said the whole process of examining the new proposal, including cabinet approval would take about three months. Two representatives of the Association for Families of the Passengers and Crew on board MH370 also attended the meeting. The Association welcomed the new proposal and thanked everyone involved.
Just to clarify, my post above was a reply to @ventus45, and I hadn’t seen @Richard’s subsequent post.
@All,
Armada 7808 has left Cape Town and is underway and back tracking eastwards to Mossel Bay, South Africa, where it is expected to arrive on 23rd January 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
@All,
Here is an update on the Armada fleet.
Armada 7801 has departed Great Yarmouth, UK and is underway to a survey site in the North Sea.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/78p024ynaxiwbtan6fppk/Armada-7801-Vessel-Finder-22JAN2025-1947-UTC.png?rlkey=v47b0k7d8zuhhiu97dkaj1b8i&dl=0
Armada 7802 is in the port of Aberdeen, UK and is doing ROV trials.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/y4e41r4m1z1lvkkgeg0va/Armada-7802-Vessel-Finder-22JAN2025-2032-UTC.png?rlkey=3ew069nss7t0gifyx78g5gb7j&dl=0
Armada 7803 is moored in Gdansk, Poland.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0znsweo9cy4zkptbjpvpa/Armada-7803-Vessel-Finder-22JAN2025-2029-UTC.png?rlkey=i2kkhvxpwvudz1kppqq4jad3s&dl=0
Armada 7804 is underway to the Cape Verde Islands.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/l7t012tlafjew1qtjufxl/Armada-7804-Vessel-Finder-22JAN2025-1930-UTC.png?rlkey=1eisjim3nrptv4wy5zv6f05px&dl=0
Armada 7805 is moored in Farsund, Norway.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/22pccimci4bguqojkfxvj/Armada-7805-Vessel-Finder-22JAN2025-2033-UTC.png?rlkey=gi51jsiljpvh8vj6v6bvedyde&dl=0
Armada 7806 is well into the Indian Ocean on a course for Mauritius.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8g1r4inhqugp9qcgmxozg/Armada-7806-Vessel-Finder-22JAN2025-1945-UTC.png?rlkey=b9r8mp2smbin4lehgja4u3ud3&dl=0
Armada 7807 is anchored off Balbao, Panama and waiting to go through the Panama Canal.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p3qe0ps6yq50zrlhtilgq/Armada-7807-Vessel-Finder-22JAN2025-2033-UTC.png?rlkey=jq76b5tvcuzc668o3lwz1seim&dl=0
Armada 7808 has now left Cape Town and is underway as of 22nd January 2025 at 20:28 UTC and back tracking eastwards to Mossel Bay, South Africa, where the reported ETA is 23rd January 2025 at 01:00 UTC, but the predicted ETA is 24th January 2025 at 01:20 UTC. There is still 234 nmi to run, which will take around 29 hours from 22nd January 2025 at 20:28 UTC.
If Armada 7808 wanted to go to Mossel Bay, it could have done so yesterday, as it passed right by. This does not make any obvious sense. There must have been a personnel or equipment reason to go to Cape Town. However Durban offers excellent port facilities and an international airport just as Cape Town, but would have been reached a lot sooner. Armada 7808 was close to Durban a week ago on 16th January 2025.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ict76kobstup6lu03ooqv/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-22JAN2025-2028-UTC.png?rlkey=8ouluh6lxjh1lvmkiuuin0flg&dl=0
None are heading to the MH370 search area.
@All,
For the avoidance of doubt, the comments from @Duncan are not from Duncan Steel.
Some of you will remember Duncan Steel as the founder of the IG, who ran a website on MH370 for many years at:
https://www.duncansteel.com/archives/category/mh370
@All,
Armada 7806 is underway in the Indian Ocean as of 23rd January 2025 08:01 UTC at 9.0 knots and on a course of 246°T for Mauritius. It is expected to arrive in Mauritius in 11 days time on 3rd February 2025:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ccqgyid2sjqi2an984qkr/Armada-7806-Vessel-Finder-23JAN2025-0801-UTC.png?rlkey=kwlfmztfactg3irvn47204ou7&dl=0
Armada 7808 is underway off the coast of South Africa as of 23rd January 2025 08:45 UTC at 9.4 knots and on a course of 99.4°T for Mossel Bay. It is expected to arrive in Mossel Bay later today at 22:59 UTC:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/jbjjr2t389xqhjrfucbo1/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-23JAN2025-0845-UTC.png?rlkey=ayy8tk0onvzyh20qcmeta85oe&dl=0
The major news on MH370 in the main stream media (MSM) is, that there is no news!
A month ago the MSM were full of themselves about Loke’s announcement, that a new underwater search for MH370 had been agreed in principle with Ocean Infinity. Since then nothing.
@Richard. One thing I think worth raising about locating the sea-bottom wreckage is the implicit assumption that this would:
• satisfy NOK and
• cost the Malaysian government heaps aside from the reward via litigation and, particularly, compensation.
As to the former, many of the bereaved surely would also want to know what the cause was, at least. However, judging from precedents that might not prove clear cut.
Accident investigators do not always agree. One example is the investigation into the 1997 SilkAir Boeing 737 crash where one country’s concluded that “pilot suicide’ was the cause, another disagreeing that this had been proved. Evidently one interpreted its responsibility as establishing cause on ‘the balance of probabilities’, the other working instead to ‘beyond reasonable doubt’. In the MH370 case it seems possible that there will be no evidence that meets that latter yardstick.
As to the second dot point, in the SilkAir instance, a US court looking into litigation found the cause instead to be a faulty rudder component. This was because evidence in the accident investigations report was disallowed presumably because it was protected against such use.
Another instance was the investigation into a 1979 Air New Zealand DC10 crash into an unseen mountain in the Antarctic while under VFR, in good visibility and with an experienced flight crew. All 257 aboard were killed. Both voice and data recorders were recovered. New Zealand’s Chief Investigator of Air Accidents concluded that the cause was pilot error. Subsequently an Inquiry by a Royal Commissioner found to the contrary that airline error had led to the pilots had been misinformed. This has not been resolved though in its finding on a side issue, the highest NZ court at the time, the Law Lords of the Privy Council in London, found against the judge.
From my glancing at the documents the judge had the better case but overstated it, attributing malfeasance.
I can post the relevant URLs of this and the SilkAir accident should anyone like.
I have seen no mention of compensation or litigation though that was 1979.
There have been numerous other instances where the accident cause has not been established or litigation resulted. There is a good chance therefore that this would end up in a muddle.
WSPR technology has already helped to demystify some of the blurred messaging that came out at the time MH370 was diverted from its scheduled flight path to Beijing.
Similarly, Inmarsat data was used early on to track an aircraft, presumably 9M MRO, into the Southern Indian Ocean.
Location and recovery of the wreckage of that aircraft will help the next of kin to move towards closure, depending on what is actually found.
Most specifically, the wreckage will help to clarify whether the passengers died by accident, or whether they were murdered or otherwise unlawfully killed.
Recovery of the wreckage may also help to establish whether the person, persons and or human / software agencies that diverted the plane were party to the continuing processes of delay, misinformation, distraction and obfuscation by Malaysian and other regional and global stakeholders.
In a report in USA Today shortly after the disappearance it was stated that contact was lost forty minutes after take-off, just as the plane was about toe enter Vietnamese air space. The same report says that contact was lost approximately two and a half hours after take off.
Below is an extract from that report:
“Subang Air Traffic Control reported that it lost contact with flight MH370 on Saturday at 2:40 a.m. local time (1:40 p.m. Friday ET), about 2½ hours after taking off, according to Yahya and a statement by the airline.
“Earlier, the Xinhua News Agency, citing a local Vietnamese media report, said a Vietnamese search-and-rescue official reported that signals — possibly emergency transponder beacons — have been detected from the plane about 220 kilometres (120 miles) southwest of Vietnam’s southernmost coastal province of Ca Mau.
“Air traffic control received a signal from the plane about one minute before it entered Vietnamese airspace, the Vietnamese government said in a statement. Air traffic control then lost all contact, including a radar signal.
“The last signal from the plane was received as the aircraft prepared to transfer to the airspace above Ca Mau province.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/07/malaysia-airlines-beijing-flight-missing/6187779/
@TommyL,
In 2014 the initial reporting on MH370 was based on communications from a large number of sources and was often imprecise and contradictory.
Contact can mean different things, it can be radio contact, ADS-B contact, radar contact, satellite contact, …
MH370 took off on 7th March 2104 at 16:41:43 UTC.
The last radio contact was on 7th March 2014 at 17:19:30 UTC.
The last ADS-B and secondary radar contact was on 7th March 2014 at 17.20:35 UTC.
The last civilian primary radar contact (received by Subang ATC) was on 7th March 2104 at 18:00:51 UTC.
The last satellite contact was on 8th March 2014 at 00:19:37 UTC.
All satellite messages from MH370, from power up at the gate in Kuala Lumpur to the last message at 00:19:37 UTC, contained the ICAO identifier 75 00 8F for the 9M-MRO aircraft, in the raw satellite communication data log.
Thanks Richard for the helpful summary and clarifications.
With regard to
“The last ADS-B and secondary radar contact was on 7th March 2014 at 17.20:35 UTC.”,
Is it accurate to say that at this point 9M MRO stopped identifying itself as a civilian aircraft?
The incident happened at a time when Crimea was occupied, its parliament had been dismissed, and a referendum to become part of Russia had been scheduled for 18th March.
Might tensions, stresses, suspicions and heightened international military states of readiness have adversely influenced the efficacy of the international emergency response to the civilian plane’s disappearance?
@All,
Armada 7808 is moored in Mossel Bay harbour having arrived on 24th January 2025 at 05:20 UTC.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/2yrxnf9pu5cixc1kt5k3c/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-24JAN2025-1532-UTC.png?rlkey=km9l2yp6lsdcdl22s28583icq&dl=0
Armada 7806 is underway in the Indian Ocean as of 24th January 2025 at 14:47 UTC at a speed of 10 knots and on a course of 251°. The ship is expected to arrive in Mauritius in 10 days time on 3rd February 2025.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ph72f3w3af2vs3bfj43j5/Armada-7806-Vessel-Finder-24JAN2025-1447-UTC.png?rlkey=1lzbkzmq3z22hhfvz9o8tgm2z&dl=0
I wouldn’t get too excited about Armada 7808 having moved east from Cape Town to Mossel Bay. Port fees are probably a lot cheaper in Mossel Bay than Cape Town. But why move east at all ?
Some of us with long memories will recall that when Ocean Infinity deployed Seabed Constructor, they sailed SSE from Durban, and spent a week or so surveying what was believed to be a post WW2 ammunition and war surplus dumping ground, before eventually transiting east to the 7th Arc.
Obviously there was a reason for that survey. Whatever they were interested in is still there.
It may well be that 7808 has just “positioned” in Mossel Bay, waiting for 7806 to arrive.
Here is another thing that no one has mentioned:
While pilot suicides are extremely rare, MH370 happened at a time when there was a spike in them. From 2013-2015, there were three jetliner crashes that were pilot suicides. MH370 was the second. For whatever reasons, pilot suicides were much more common than normal during that time period. That explains why such an extraordinary event happened at that time.
We need to be able to search for and investigate MH370 without Malaysia’s involvement. Malaysia has not handled this situation responsibly.
So what 3 flights are you saying; MH370, Germanwings, and ?. Since then we have apparent ChinaEastern, and at least one USA close call from off duty pilot in jump seat.
Certainly whereas MH370 was, and still is widely denied, the Germanwings (thankfully undeniable) was a wake-up call that prompted 2-in-cockpit globally and other measures that probably helped reduce to some extent.
Matthew references LAM Mozambique Airlines Flight 470.
It crashed at Bwabwata National Park on 29th November 2013, following autopilot manipulation inputs.
According to Wikipedia, ‘The LAM crash was not extensively covered by the media because the crash happened in a third world country.’
Here are the safety recommendations from the 2016 Final Report into the LAM 470 crash. Some of them are relevant in the search for the wreckage of MH370,
4. SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS
As a result of the investigation of this accident the DAAI make the following Safety Recommendations:
TO THE MOZAMBIQUE CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY:
Safety recommendation number 001/2015 LAM
DAAI recommends that Mozambique Civil Aviation Authority should come up with a mechanism to ensure that the procedure of two people in the flight deck is adhered to at all times as laid out in LAM’s Manual of Flight Operation Chapter 10.1.4, Page 5 of 36, Edition 3 Revision 8, (Absence from Flight Deck).
TO ICAO
Safety recommendation number 002/2015 LAM
DAAI recommends that ICAO should establish a working group that should look into the operation and the threat management emanating from both side of the cockpit door.
Safety recommendation number 003/2015 LAM
DAAI recommends that ICAO should establish standards that implement recommendations of the working group, formed under safety recommendations number 002/2015 LAM to suitably avert the locking out of the cockpit of authorized crew members.
Safety recommendation number 004/2015 LAM
DAAI recommends that ICAO should establish a working group to review the installation of visual recording inside and outside the cockpit that should provide information on who was in the cabin, who exactly was controlling the plane at the time of the accident and even where their hands were in relation to the plane’s controls.
Safety recommendation number 005/2015 LAM
DAAI recommends that ICAO should expedite the implementation of international requirements on global tracking of airline flights providing early warning of, and response to, abnormal flight behavior information to ensure that search and rescue services, recovery and accident investigation
activities are conducted timely.
Safety recommendation number 006/2015 LAM
DAAI recommends that ICAO working group (Global Tracking 2014-WP/6) speeds up the research and implementation of aircraft tracking and localization other than ELT system.
Good info thank you…to me that shows part of the potential problem with MH370. Nobody wants to come up with that action-item list, because that implies various changes industry needs to make, and I could probably add several more. This resistance is above and beyond Malaysian cultural/political resistance.
re “that shows part of the potential problem with MH370. Nobody wants to come up with that action-item list”
The list of safety recommendations produced by the investigation team following the unexplained diversion of MH370 from its filed flight plan, together with subsequent failed search and rescue efforts, is contained in the Safety Investigation Report, Section 4, ‘Safety Recommendations’
https://images.law.com/contrib/content/uploads/documents/398/20710/Malaysia-Air-final-report.pdf
Recovery of the wreckage, leading to a better understanding of what happened, will help to make the list of recommendations more complete and more useful for the global civilian airline industry.
PS- To be realistic Malaysia is not the only source of denial and reluctance to tell the public, and search, the active-pilot scenario that probably happened. ICAO unfortunately basically gives smaller countries control of their accidents, and does not back then up with industry funding to do the investigations and search. Malaysia could have requested NTSB/FBI assist but obviously they’d rather take the control offered by ICAO in this scenario. The bottom line is we can search but the analysis step is broken due to the socially unacceptable need for nefarious assumptions. This is the MH370 Catch-22.
@Duncan
The Malaysians aren’t crazy, not at all, they are very crafty politicians.
Politicians by definition are masters of the art of dangling promises and false hopes in front of people, and getting away with it, time and again. That is their stock in trade, their standard modus operandi, or in aviation terms, their SOP.
I am frustrated by the fact that although most people seem to be quite aware of that in the political life of where they live (we are coming up to a Federal Election down here in a couple of months) but they don’t seem to be able to come to terms with the reality, that for Malaysia, MH370 is an entirely political issue, not an aviation issue, let alone an accident issue.
For people external to Malaysia to think that Malaysia should act solely in the interests of aviation accident investigation etiquette and protocols are just childish, wishful thinking at best.
The Malaysian Political Imperative is clear. MH370 must never be found ……
“…..the ultimate objective was not to have a search.” (your words).
I would add, “…… not this season, not ever”.
To ensure that this objective is achieved, the Malaysian strategy has been:
(a) to run out the clock on this season = (tick + 1 gold star), and
(b) to leave the NOK thinking that a new search still might happen = leave the NOK hanging on to the hope that OI does have things under control behind the scenes.
You (like most) seem to think that is still the case, but I don’t. So, the question now becomes, will a contract ever eventuate? You seem to think so – eventually, but I think not.
To be brutally frank, I think Malaysia is more than happy with the current state of play. As far as Malaysia are concerned, Malaysia has OI right where they want them, well and truly snookered.
OI made a critical strategic error (in my view) when they foolishly declared, publicly, that they would not search without a contract.
That one simple statement gave Malaysia the golden excuse that they needed. It allows Malaysia to hold OI at bay indefinitely Unfortunately, when OI fell into a trap of it’s own making, thus effectively hoisted themselves (unintentionally) on their own petard, they also gave Malaysia a “get out of jail free card”, because it is highly unlikely that any other company will enter the search arena whilst OI still has an outstanding offer on the table.
Then there is the question of the mooted “18 months”. You seem to think that is to OI’s benefit. I don’t. I think it is a smart condition for Malaysia to adopt, because it effectively prevents any other search organization even considering a search prior to the 2027-2028 seasons.
What is troubling is that some of those organizations have reportedly indicated that they want a contract too.
In light of the OI experience, I would suggest, that perhaps they should think again.
@All,
Armada 7806 has passed Christmas Island and the Cocos Islands and is holding course for Mauritius. It is obviously not diverting to the MH370 search area.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/rua2g8craemo6x4az6dqj/Armada-7806-Vessel-Finder-25JAN2025-0832-UTC.png?rlkey=pm9xwzra11ou5e22da59xfsci&dl=0
Armada 7808 has left Mossel Bay to an unspecified destination and is currently on a course of 99.1° at 8.5 knots. This is not to the MH370 search area.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/f6d34648ocjlvwfhamm6p/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-25JAN2025-08044-UTC.png?rlkey=1g873ugha7h1deq1j34h0t17p&dl=0
@ventus45 suggested in a comment above: “Some of us with long memories will recall that when Ocean Infinity deployed Seabed Constructor, they sailed SSE from Durban, and spent a week or so surveying what was believed to be a post WW2 ammunition and war surplus dumping ground, before eventually transiting east to the 7th Arc.”
Here is the search area back in 2018, when Seabed Constructor had recently left the port of Durban, South Africa. The Ocean Infinity ship stopped enroute to the MH370 search area between 6th January and 9th January 2018. The graphic linked below shows the AUV drop and pick up points:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/x8xavkxb6czu0rgn0yn7d/Seabed-Constructor-06012018-to-09012018.png?rlkey=1a7sx8bju024km84ctor9fhus&dl=0
Seabed Constructor then left for the MH370 search area on 13th January 2018, where it arrived 8 days later on 21st January 2018:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8q9oh9oiv362n20chsm0x/Seabed-Constructor-13012018-111616.png?rlkey=qxkzw3s9fj50h4xyckvc958ru&dl=0
The current destination of Armada 7808 appears to be this previous search area from 2018 at 37.2813°S 36.7921°E, which is unrelated to MH370. It will take Armada 7808 at its current speed of 8.5 knots around 3.5 days to reach this destination. Armada 7808 is expected back in Mossel Bay on 5th February 2025 in 11 days time.
There is no way that Armada 7808 can be back in Mossel Bay in 11 days time as stated as the current destination, if it was going to the MH370 search area. It would take 8 days to get to the MH370 search area and then 8 days back, without any time to actually search.
@All,
Armada 7808 has just changed its destination to Mauritius, where it will be arriving in 11 days time on 5th February 2025.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/rwm7b73aokunzwrie14hi/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-25JAN2025-1430-UTC.png?rlkey=bhk8u6iouigk7gnwqa56ezr0q&dl=0
It took 12 days from Mauritius to Cape Town, so the reverse trip from Mossel Bay to Mauritius will take 11 days.
Armada 7808 is going straight to Mauritius, there will be no surveying of old sites from 2018.
Armada 7806 will arrive in Mauritius on 3rd February 2025.
@All,
Armada 7806 is on course to arrive in Mauritius on 3rd February 2025:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/2j1q65mb3rbn1phn7x3um/Armada-7806-Vessel-Finder-27JAN2025-0916-UTC.png?rlkey=shqtwgiluj1hrlnaqx59nl27p&dl=0
Armada 7808 is on course to arrive in Mauritius on 5th February 2025:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/dck0q3ljjxfx23s1nhreo/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-27JAN2025-0947-UTC.png?rlkey=4xiha5k07klei6kojtuhte2u3&dl=0
A source close to the negotiations between the Malaysian government and Ocean Infinity has confirmed today that there is still no news of a contract being signed between the parties.
@All,
A recent post on a Pilot’s website:
“The purpose of accident investigation is to find cause with a view to improving aviation safety.
Since this all started have a bunch of airliners disappeared without trace?
Has the been a chain of the aircraft type crashing for no discernible reason?”
He continues …
“Therefore is the cost of searching for and recovering data from the missing aircraft after all these years worth the candle.”
“It will make for interesting programming on Discovery or History channel but at the end of the day will aviation safety be improved?”
“The main benefit would seem to be closure for the families of the missing. Not to mention providing employment and renumeration for cohorts of lawyers as they sue everyone who ever even touched the aircraft or had anything to do with the design, construction or operation of it right down to the lumberjack who cut the tree from which the pulp to manufacture the toilet paper in the lavatory was made.”
“Humans do, however, like mystery and conspiracies …after all we are still looking for Amelia Earhart.”
Question: “Since this all started have a bunch of airliners disappeared without trace?”
Answer: 3 since MH370 and 327 before (source: ASN Database Category Unknown Cause Missing).
Point: How many does it take?
Question: “Has there been a chain of the aircraft type crashing for no discernible reason?”
Answer: 115 since MH370 and 137 before of all aircraft types, 65 since and 12 before of Boeing 777 aircraft (source: ASN Database Category Unknown Cause Undetermined).
Point: How can you improve safety, if you do not find the cause?
As stated by an industry consultant years ago, industry knows what probably happened to MH370 and it is criminal act. Many in the public are deny/oppose to that, unfortunately the denial/opposition is not factual, it is emotional/cultural/etc, but the opposition is very strong because denial is a strong emotion. Without public pressure, industry can take its time to make the needed changes; we are talking like 100 years from MH370 event to get needed changes agreed to and implemented throughout the system. Korea’s JeJu example with blackbox outage is example of delaying many decades to slowly implement a need (CVR back up battery) that NTSB probably started asking for many decades ago. I think the USA has adversarial/delay approach, so for example 25-hr CVR already implemented in Europe.
Not sure about some of the stats in this. “65 since and 12 before of Boeing 777 aircraft”??
According to Wikipedia: “As of May 2024, the 777 had been involved in 31 aviation accidents and incidents…”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777#Accidents_and_incidents
If there have been further 46 since last May I must have missed them.
@Duncan,
There have been a total of 563 Boeing 777 accidents and 542 fatalities according to the Aviation Safety Network Database:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/q4u1r2gcipm70vnkwwfv5/ASN-Boeing-777-563-Accidents-and-542-Fatalities.png?rlkey=vk4covjf4ywvghjt1bexubxyx&dl=0
Here is an Excel spreadsheet with a list of the Boeing 777 accidents where the cause is unknown (category unk), that you questioned:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5v7te0pcxl8wglx76xrb7/ASN-Boeing-777-Accidents-Cause-Unknown.xlsx?rlkey=0nu1i2folnq6pzimgipzv6u83&dl=0
Here is a list of recent aircraft that are missing, including MH370:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/d2qyv5lgsa7spt838t2b1/ASN-Aircraft-Recently-Missing.png?rlkey=mrlkonj8mt58f46u3i98b8jy8&dl=0
The Aviation Safety Network Database can be found at the following link:
https://asn.flightsafety.org/database/
You can search by aircraft type, date, region or category of occurrence.
OK, thanks.
I can see from your second attachment where the author might have got the figures 63 (not 65) and 12 from, but having just looked at the two incidents involving BA, this is what I found:
5 May 2019: “the aircraft encountered turbulence causing injuries to 12 passengers and 2 crew.”
https://asn.flightsafety.org/wikibase/224827
24 Nov 2023: “the flight crew had observed fumes in the cockpit.”
https://asn.flightsafety.org/wikibase/348320
I haven’t looked at the other 73 incidents, but I think it’s a bit of a stretch to describe either of these planes as “crashing”, as the author does.
@Duncan,
The author made the statement: “The purpose of accident investigation is to find a cause with a view to improving aviation safety.”
The author then asks two questions:
1. Since this all started have a bunch of airliners disappeared without trace?
The answer is unequivocally yes. There were 3 since MH370 and 327 before.
I provided a list of the aircraft missing since the year 2000.
The point is: How many does it take?
2. Has there been a chain of the aircraft type crashing for no discernible reason?
The answer is unequivocally yes. There have been 47 serious accidents involving a Boeing 777, including 8 accidents with fatalities, 5 accidents where the aircraft was written off and 38 aircraft with substantial damage.
29 of these 47 serious accidents were before MH370 and 17 since.
In addition, there have been 61 accidents involving a Boeing 777, where the cause is unknown.
The point is: How can you improve safety, if you do not find the cause?
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8hpzij0gg97qiwg3bgjsz/ASN-Boeing-777-Significant-Accidents.xlsx?rlkey=njtphq8p78fxuvqsdyugzrhh1&dl=0
In petrochemical industry we spend a whole lot effort doing What-If and Hazop studies to try to predict points of failure to prevent accidents. We actually sit down and say, OK if this pipe failed, how many could get killed in the worst case scenario. Something like 239 souls would be unacceptable loss to private industry, due to liability. Part of the issue in aviation is limited liability allows 239 souls lost to be quite acceptable financially, and public also views it as acceptable risk. In the case of MH370 Hazop would be an easy study because we can see much of what was done, or may have been done, and we can see the fixes, which would be (have already been) fought vehemently. I see it as a double-standard where aviation/pilots gets excused by public.
@Richard
I get the author’s point that there should be another search for MH370 in order to establish the cause, and and I completely agree.
It’s the author’s use of emotive, exaggerated and misleading language (specifically the word “crashing”) that I take issue with, because it retards rather than advances the cause.
Hi Richard,
I was recently listening to your informative reply to Geoffrey Thomas in the recent ‘Who Is Responsible for MH370 Search?’ episode on the Airline News YouTube channel.
In that episode it was mentioned that “…anyone may search in international waters for MH370 but no-one can disturb, interfere, or remove any of the wreckage without the agreement of the state of registration…”
I’m curious though as to how any items found in international waters can be accurately determined as belonging to a particular aircraft or
not without being disturbed given that in another episode, ‘Key MH370 Debris Explained By Wreck Hunter’, Blaine mentioned that of the wreckage recovered so far, there were only “…three absolutely confirmed pieces of MH370 debris by matching serial numbers…” presumably after their recovery and further analysis.
Unless airline livery or a serial number can be determined by underwater video cameras during a search phase, then in the case of a significant level of fragmentation spread over a potentially large area, isn’t it going to be difficult to identify any item found as being wreckage and accurately determine the ‘state of registration’ without first disturbing it to enable removal for further analysis ?
thanks
Richard,
Regarding the new search ………..
I think your website is helping to keep this alive on the global front and this is to your credit .
I am however beginning to feel that until such time that the families directly effected in malaysia create a real fuss and place the goverment in an embarrissing position – that nothing useful will be done to sign up to any new search.
If there was an important transgression on the part of the goverment associated with this event at the time, then if that ever surfaces – than that might be useful perhaps to get things going.
The other option of course is that other nations start to restrict or ban malaysian flights into their country to bring pressure to bear onto the powers that be – to face up to their wider responsibilities.
It is not an easy call for sure – only yesterday I read that the malaysian goverment are currently not allowing a range of freedom of expression views, on social media and in the press. Big brother comes to mind.
Clearly whatever – they (the malaysian authorities) wish to control this on their terms.
Please can you place this view in your new search section – barry.
@All,
A new YouTube video by Dr. Harini Bhat titled “MH370 The Unsolved Mystery”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgfjlIB2GG8
In the series on the YouTube channel called “Today I Learned Science”, Dr. Harini Bhat interviews Jean-Luc Marchand and myself and poses the key questions that need to be answered to resolve the mystery of the disappearance of MH370.
Hi Richard,
Thanks for this.
In the video, Jean-Luc mentions that “the flight attendants are programmed like machines” and “they have to apply the procedure”. Does anyone know if the procedure would be for them to automatically use the bottled oxygen supply stored in the cabin, to allow them to move more freely about the cabin or not ? There potentially was more than 20mins supply in the cabin for some of those not relying on the overhead oxygen generators.
Whilst on the subject of oxygen, I’m curious as to why the cockpit oxygen might have been requested to be topped up before the flight, if the intention was that only one pilot was to be using it for the suggested depressurisation phase. Does anyone know the procedure for this ? Presumably sometimes it is done as routine if it drops below a certain threshold, and at other times it is requested by a pilot as part of a pre-flight check before take-off. Presumably this would be logged either way ? Is there any verified information on this aspect ?
thanks
Two key questions that are not raised in the video might help to move towards a better understanding of what happened to the passengers and crew of MH370.
Especially if we ask the questions with an initial presumption of innocence towards all members of the crew and all passengers.
By brainstorming all imaginable answers to these two questions and by feeding the resuting dataset of answers into both, for example, ChatGPT and DeepSeek, it would be possible to create for each question two AI-generated lists of potential explanations, ranked in order of plausibilty.
A meta-analysis of the nuanced differences between the two plausibility-ranked AI-generated lists of possible explanations for each of the two questions would provide a rudimentary bias / propaganda unscrambling filter that could be applied to de-noise the actual evidence that has been gathered to date.
If this process is refined to a pont where it is helpful and reliable, then it would provide a platform for a less biased / prejudiced analysis of any MH370 data and wreckage that may in future be recovered from the ocean floor.
The two questions are:
1. Why did the navigator, Captain Shah, not make contact with Ho Chi Minh ATC?
2. Why did the pilot flying, First Officer Hamid, stop flying the aircraft towards Beijing?
@Tommy L,
And you can add: …
3. Was the co-pilot’s mobile phone detected over Penang Island?
4. Was MH370 detected by the Inmarsat satellite over the Indian Ocean?
5. Did MH370 continue to fly for over 7 hours until fuel exhaustion?
6. Are any of the items of floating debris found around the Indian Ocean from MH370?
7. Is there any chance that WSPR radio waves can detect and track MH370?
8. Was the disappearance of MH370 nefarious?
9. If so, who was the perpetrator and what was the motive?
10. Do the Malaysian authorities have anything to hide?
You could add your suggested questions.
In fact, someone who is learning about science, as the video programme title suggests, could adapt the experiment to use any question about any aspect of the search for MH370.
However, to do so might not be very helpful to the MH370 next of kin or the global civilian aviation community. It might be compared to Isaac Newton spending years sitting under orange trees, pear trees, plum trees etc to confirm experimentally that they also fell to the ground, just like the fabled apple.
The two questions that I listed are key, not only because they address the moment at which things are believed to have diverged from what was expected, but also because they leave room for multiple, open, creative, imaginative narratives.
As is usual in brainstorming processes, ideas would not be screened out in the initial phase, as it is possible that an eccentric, bizarre or incoherent narrative contains a small percentage of useful suggestions. These useful elements can be recombined by AI to generate additional as yet unimagined viable narratives.
Comparison of the different ways in which differently-biased AI algorithms perform that function can help to filter that bias out, as far as is possible, from the eventual global, scientifically agreed analysis of what happened to MH370.
To give an example of what I was proposing:
Question 1 -1. Why did the navigator, Captain Shah, not make contact with Ho Chi Minh ATC?
Here are ten out of many thousands of possible narratives:
1. Captain Shah died suddenly and the First Officer panicked and pressed the wrong buttons.
2. Captain Shah was unconscious due to a lack of oxygen.
3. Captain Shah was distracted and forgot to contact HCM
4. The aircraft was hijacked by somebody on board
5. The aircraft was remotely commandeered
6. The aircraft communication system was damaged
7. FM and other transmissions from the plane were jammed
8. Captain Shah ‘typed in’ the wrong number in the radio
9. A spoofed local FM transmission, pretending to be HCM or KL ATC instructed the plane to turn around
10. A spoofed local FM transmission, pretending to be the Malaysian, Singaporean, Vietnamese or other military, ordered an air turn back.
@Tommy L,
I disagree with limiting the questions in your proposed AI experiment because that might “not be very helpful” or might be likened to comparing apples with pears, plums or oranges.
I disagree that the additional questions I suggested do not leave room for multiple, open, creative and imaginative narratives. There are already a lot of ideas that have been published in response to those questions.
On the contrary, if you do not want ideas to be screened out in the initial phase, because it is possible that an eccentric, bizarre or incoherent narrative contains a small percentage of useful suggestions, then all available data with a complete set of relevant questions is essential.
I would love to know what an AI experiment based on the training data of the 120+ books written on the subject of MH370, might come up with.
re;” I disagree that the additional questions I suggested do not leave room for multiple, open, creative and imaginative narratives.”
I respect your difference of opinion. Here is a response to your additional questions from one of the eight billion or so people who are active stakeholders in this search, or non-search.
3. Was the co-pilot’s mobile phone detected over Penang Island?
Possible Answers: ‘Yes’, ‘No’, ‘Yes and No’, ‘Neither Yes nor No’
After AI analysis, the Yes answer would almost certainly get a very high rating, the No answer would get a very low rating, and the other two answers would be somewhere in between.
4. Was MH370 detected by the Inmarsat satellite over the Indian Ocean? Same answer as question 3.
5. Did MH370 continue to fly for over 7 hours until fuel exhaustion? Same answer as question 3.
6. Are any of the items of floating debris found around the Indian Ocean from MH370? Same answer as question 3.
7. Is there any chance that WSPR radio waves can detect and track MH370? Same answer as question 3.
8. Was the disappearance of MH370 nefarious? Any answer at this stage is based on opinion rather than fact, as there is insufficient evidence.
In my opinion, the diversion of the plane from its filed flight plan was probably nefarious, the ineffective emergency response to the diversion was possibly nefarious and the dumping of the bodies in a remore place was almost certainly nefarious.
9. If so, who was the perpetrator and what was the motive? It’s probably more helpful to leave that dependent, double question in the hands of interpol.
10. Do the Malaysian authorities have anything to hide? Same answer as question 3.
re:”I would love to know what an AI experiment based on the training data of the 120+ books written on the subject of MH370, might come up with.”
Such research could be very helpful.
An appropriately designed AI experiment, or set of experiments based on the content of the books written about MH370 could help in the finding of the wreckage if it could help to clarify at which points in the timeline the search efforts, whether intentionally or accidentally, were diverted away from the actual wreckage location.
By systematically identifying and ‘rolling back’ through these diversions it might be possible to get back to a ‘clean point’, somewhere between the filing of the faulty, albeit valid, flight plan for MH370 and the failure of Captain Shah to make contact with HCM ATC.
@All,
I was reminded again this morning, reading the following newspaper article in The Indian Express, of the tragedy we call MH370.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p04mfajzco6o2h8jv8m90/Not-knowing-is-painful-With-Malaysia-set-to-resume-hunt-why-Pune-man-whose-wife-was-on-MH370-is-not-holding-out-hope.pdf?rlkey=kbfr10unlw4vobomiefp228s2&dl=0
Prahlad Shirsat’s wife Kranti was one of the 239 people aboard Malaysian Airlines flight MH370.
He says: “Not knowing is painful”.
“These news reports keep coming but unless and until something happens on the ground, this cannot be trusted. And, personally, I have lost trust in the government,” he says.
“I meet people, and once they come to know that my wife was on board the flight, they ask me what had happened. Unfortunately, I have no answers,” he adds.
I think that this is an awful situation as it very much looks as though the malaysians do not wish the aircraft to be found. If not the case, then they just do not want to have to pay for the search.
If the search could take place for free (ie no search fee applicable) maybe OI could charge the fee they wish to be paid for salvage part instead.
By finding the aircraft and not disclosing its actual location – they might just be in a better position with the malaysians to persuade them to allow the salvage to take place on mutually agreeable terms. By then the pressure will come onto the malaysians to agree to the salvage – with the disclosure that the aircraft has been found. Just a thought – barry
Further to my comment at 14.38 hours today. Why do OI not ignore any search fee etc altogether and enter into discussions for the salvage today for an agreed sum etc on the basis that they find the aircraft in a privately funded search done by them – all technicalities ignored – job done – barry
The way I look at it is, we really do not know where MH370 is, and there is no support for actually finding MH370 if it takes years to find. However, there is much interest in OI having a final chance to search in a “practical area to search”. It is not just Malaysia reluctant to search, industry is not helping much either, because this accident is not in anyone’s best interest. It is in OI’s best interest to have support from Malaysia to conduct this final search and get a good “report card” from Malaysia and provide a sense of closure that as much was done as practical. If the aircraft is not in a practical place to search, then nobody who matters really wants to go down that path of where the end point is, and how it got there.
@TBill
Given all the thousands of hours of work that I know that you have personally put into the search for MH370, your post of 1 February 2025 at 20:36 sounds very discouraging, even defeatist, which surprises me. You sound as though you are on the precipice of giving up the quest ? Surely not ?
1. Why do you say that it has to be “in a practical place to search”, and what defines “a practical place” anyway ? Given that ENDURANCE was found under the ice in the Weddell Sea, I would say that the “practical place” criterion is blown out of the water (no pun intended).
2. Why do you say that OI needs a good “report card” from Malaysia ? That blew me out of the water too ! The way I look at the last eight plus years, OI & Oliver’s credibility & integrity stands proudly atop Everest, compared to Malaysia’s, which is cowering in the Challenger Deep. Why on earth would OI need “a good report card” ? Really ? I’m sorry, but I just don’t get it.
I do agree with your assessment that “the industry” is not helping much (if at all), but that certainly does not mean that “it is not in anyone’s best interest” (where I presume you are only equating ‘anyone’ with ‘industry’) to continue to search.
It is certainly in the interests of the NOK to find MH370, and in the wider sense, it is certainly in the interest of all of us who fly (which these days is just about everybody at least once in their lives) to find it, to determine what happened, why it happened, and to adopt measures to ensure that it never happens again.
The industry traditionally (and by law) does not normally actively investigate accidents in the first instance, since that is the duty and responsibility of the designated authorities, but those authorities will garner industry assistance as required. The industry does usually conduct it’s own parallel investigations into matters pertaining to accidents where they are obvious from the accident itself, where it can, and where it is legal to do so. But in the case of MH370, the responsible authorities are now clearly derelict in their duties, so perhaps it is time for the industry itself to get actively involved in assisting OI (with their insights).
3. You also used the term “final search” a couple of times. You seem to be heavily implying that this coming search should “provide a sense of closure that as much was done as practical.” That sounds very much like Pontius Pilate “washing his hands of the matter” to me (bowl, water, soap and towel at the ready ?).
4. You have previously mentioned JFK, and you have delved into the dark rabbit hole of ‘denial’ and ‘face’ in Asian societies, so I presume those factors form the back-story to your assessment that “nobody who matters really wants to go down that path of where the end point is, and how it got there.” I presume by “nobody who matters” you actually mean those in authority who have the duty and responsibility to “solve the case” ? If that is what you mean, it is hardly news. That has been obvious to all of us for a very long time indeed. However, what has never been explained is “why is it so” (Professor Julius Sumner Miller). I watched all his lessons in high school. It still applies. Until we find out “why”, the search must continue, indefinitely if need be.
Ventus I always had two objectives (1) try to understand all of the denial, and (2) try to figure out where the aircraft went. I have completed those tasks to the best of my ability and feel the denial prevents honest assessment of crash location, given Malaysia is not supporting any true analysis effort. There is not support for the nefarious criminal hiding-the-aircraft scenario, sure some of us have interest, but not the controlling interest, and not a big enough quorum of expertise to solve it.
re:”If the aircraft is not in a practical place to search, then nobody who matters really wants to go down that path of where the end point is, and how it got there.”
These words are, sadly, reminiscent of Stan Rogers’ song, The Mary Ellen Carter:
“Well the owners wrote her off, not a nickel would they spend
She gave twenty years of service boys, then met her sorry end.
But Insurance paid the loss to us, now let her rest below
And they laughed at us and said we had to go”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fT-aEcPgkuA
Tragically, Stan Rogers died in 1982 on Air Canada flight 797
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Canada_Flight_797
I am just saying culturally the “worst case scenario” is not a case of interest to Malaysia or China and professionally not much support from aviation community experts. Sure some of us including myself have tried to work the case.
re: “… the “worst case scenario” is not a case of interest to Malaysia or China”
I agree with you that neither Malaysia nor China would have any interest in any search and recovery process that could be weaponised against them, directly or indirectly, by a covert, hostile third party.
Perhaps China, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei. New Zealand, PNG, Cambodia,The Philippines, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, The Solomon Islands, and any other significant regional nations could, in the spirit of this being the second UN International Year of Co-operatives, work co-operatively to resolve this matter as a way of strengthening regional, and thereby global security on behalf of all air passengers and crews.
https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/78/289
@All,
Armada 7808 will depart Port Louis, Mauritius for the MH370 search area on Friday 7th February 2025 at around midday local time.
It will take around 10 days for Armada 7808 to reach the search area.
Armada 7808 loaded equipment in Cape Town, South Africa on 22nd January 2025.
Armada 7808 has not unloaded any AUVs in Port Louis, Mauritius today.
It has now loaded equipment from Armada 7806, which arrived in Port Louis yesterday from Singapore.
The two ships are sitting beside each other currently in Port Louis Terminal II Quay 2.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/y8szw81fe4rxhy8nyuf49/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-05FEB2025-0611-UTC.png?rlkey=0rmqcglj5vktv37cwic3n7ozv&dl=0
Armada 7808 has had a crew change and provisioning.
Tomorrow Armada 7808 will move to Terminal I Quay E for refuelling and loading ship’s spares.
Armada 7806 leaves on Saturday 8th February.
Armada 7806 has had no crew change, provisioning or refuelling.
You can find the details in the Port Louis Berthing Plan Excel spreadsheet linked below:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/a01ejh135d8tosuef8bpg/Port-Louis-Berthing-Plan.xlsx?rlkey=idfzallhygj0f3zat4v203yt1&dl=0
An extract from the Berthing Plan just for Armada 7806 and Armada 7808 can be found at this link:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/50iahkpqow9fc8dz7p8qv/Port-Louis-Berthing-Plan-Armada-7806-and-7808.png?rlkey=2h6fm2ytipzjgmez2z6g9t3mi&dl=0
That’s quite an announcement Richard!
How do you know 78 08’s destination, and which search area is it heading for first? There are several.
I can’t immediately find anything online about a contract having been signed.
@Duncan,
I have also not seen any official announcement from the Malaysian authorities or Ocean Infinity. Either OI expect a contract soon, or they plan to search anyway without a contract, which is their prerogative.
The MH370 search area is 4,400 km or 2,400 nmi from Mauritius. The individual search areas are all relatively speaking close together within the Southern Indian Ocean and follow along the 7th Arc within ± 50 nmi either side of the 7th Arc.
Ocean Infinity have not disclosed the sequence of the search, but have stated they want to search until MH370 is found:
(a) OI wants to search the WSPR area as backed by the analysis of Prof. Simon Maskell and his team at Liverpool University.
(b) OI wants to search the UGIB area and refinements promoted by Victor Iannello and the Independent Group.
(c) OI wants to search Blelly/Marchand area, presented to the Royal Aeronautical Society.
OI have privately stated that Armada 7808 is the ship designated to the new MH370 search and the vessel is now being prepared for a long journey and a long stay at sea. Previous tours in the search area in 2018 lasted approximately 6 weeks before returning to port. Back then in 2018 Fremantle, Australia was used, being the port closest to the search area.
As explained above, Armada 7808 has had a crew change, loaded several containers of equipment and has been fully provisioned. Tomorrow Armada 7808 will move to another quay, where it will be fully refuelled and ship’s spares will be loaded.
Additionally Armada 7808 has not today offloaded any AUVs. A Kongsberg Hugin 6000 AUV is 6.2 m long and weighs 1,850 kg. Here is a picture of one being loaded in Durban in 2018. You need a sizeable crane for the task and no cranes were seen today off loading any AUVs.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/nxg89ydtmq655aiixgiyw/AUV-Loading.jpg?rlkey=i4jrspac63rxe9gx7ko7urjda&dl=0
Armada 7606 by contrast has not had a crew change, provisioning or refuelling.
All the details are supplied in the Port Louis Berthing Plan, published above and by eye witnesses in Port Louis.
what a news!
will you post a separate article after OI confirmed the new mission publicly?
@Victor,
I will post a separate article once OI confirm the new mission publicly.
Armada 7808 will depart Port Louis, Mauritius for the MH370 search area on Friday 7th February 2025 at around midday local time.
Has this been confirmed by Ocean Infinity? I’ve not seen any press release by them or the Malaysians.
If this is the case, Hallelujah.
@Gary Moore,
Ocean Infinity have not confirmed this in a public statement.
@Richard
That’s great news! I was unable to find the destination of Armada 78 08. Where is is stated?
@Mikko,
In general terms, the search area is stated in the search proposal presented to the Malaysian government on 2nd May 2024. OI expect to cover an area of 15,000 km2, but are not constrained by that expectation.
The next port of call is given as the destination and is usually posted when a vessel leaves port, but in this case I expect the destination will be withheld or the destination will be simply “survey area”.
@Richard
Thank you for your reply. I meant how can you know where 78 08 is going as I wasn’t able to find any information regarding that? I don’t mean to be rude at all here.
@Mikko,
Great question and no offense taken!
1. Oliver Plunkett has confirmed in a private conversation that Armada 7808 is the ship designated by Ocean Infinity for the new search for MH370.
2. Ocean Infinity presented their proposal to the Malaysian authorities on 2nd May 2024 for a new search to be conducted by Armada 7808 with a dual AUV configuration in an area estimated to be 15,000 km2.
3. On 20th December 2024, the Malaysian government agreed in principle to the Ocean Infinity search proposal.
4. Today Armada 7808 is in Port Louis, Mauritius having voyaged from Singapore to Cape Town across the Indian Ocean and now back tracked to Mauritius.
5. Armada 7808 has had a crew change, been fully provisioned and fully fuelled for a long voyage and a long period at sea.
6. I deduce that Armada 7808 is preparing for the proposed, planned and in principle agreed MH370 search.
Do you disagree with this logical deduction?
@Richard
I’m not disagreeing at all with your deduction. I tried finding the information about 78 08 departing on 7th of February (or was it 8th of February?). I’m also confused about the claim that OI would search even without a contract. Why would they do that? They get no compensation even if the wreckage is found. Also how can we be sure that 78 08 is heading for the search area? Because there’s no public statement being made would it be possible that 78 08 is heading for other assignment? I’m excited that the search would finally be started again but I don’t want to raise false expectations..
@Richard Godfrey
“Armada 7808 will depart Port Louis, Mauritius for the MH370 search area on Friday 7th February 2025 at around midday local time.”
Where do you get this specific timing for the potential departure?
@Puuhöylä,
The information can be found in my comment yesterday:
https://www.mh370search.com/2024/05/05/new-search/comment-page-4/#comment-3331
I published the date of 7th February, with backing evidence.
The information can be found at the following link. There is an official berthing plan for Armada 7808 until 7th February, but not after that date. Here is an extract from the berthing plan for the Armada vessels:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/50iahkpqow9fc8dz7p8qv/Port-Louis-Berthing-Plan-Armada-7806-and-7808.png?rlkey=2h6fm2ytipzjgmez2z6g9t3mi&dl=0
In the full berthing plan, you will see activities for Armada 7808 in the first part of the day, then activities on the same berth for a ship called “Win Long” disembarking fish in the second part of the day. From the berthing plan, I deduced Armada 7808 will have left Port Louis by the second half of the working day local time, in other words after midday.
You can find the details in the full Port Louis Berthing Plan Excel spreadsheet linked below:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/a01ejh135d8tosuef8bpg/Port-Louis-Berthing-Plan.xlsx?rlkey=idfzallhygj0f3zat4v203yt1&dl=0
@All,
Here is a low resolution picture of Armada 7806 (left) and Armada 7808 (right) in Port Louis today,
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/96b860q56byjbsl6j12v8/Armada-7808-and-7806-in-Mauritius.jpg?rlkey=r1faycrrigx4fhsgkj2rncsvt&dl=0
Higher resolution pictures to follow.
Richard,
I hope OI will find MH370.
I am still new in this group.
Can you please direct me to a single map of the search showing all the potential locations of MH370:
1) the WSPR area as backed by the analysis of Prof. Simon Maskell and his team at Liverpool University ( we can find this in your website)
2) the UGIB area and refinements promoted by Victor Iannello and the Independent Group.
3) the Blelly/Marchand area, presented to the Royal Aeronautical Society.
Richard,
If OI does find MH370 in either of the above locations,
because of your dedication in finding MH370, you are still a hero to so many.
@Jafni,
Welcome to the blog!
1. You have already found the WSPR search area on this website.
2. You can find the UGIB paper at the link below:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3byyjnkt4awaig4823twc/The-Final-Resting-Place-of-MH370-7th-March-2020.pdf?rlkey=l8lmseog6glwjm0bcr1yjda8t&dl=0
The paper has been extensively discussed in over 50 comments on this website.
3. You can find the Blelly/Marchand search area in a previous post on this website:
https://www.mh370search.com/2024/03/16/mh370-a-new-hope/
@All,
A report on the new search for MH370 by Geoffrey Thomas of Airline News (3m 50s):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=678g-0SvePE
An interview with Richard Godfrey with the details of the new search to be conducted by Ocean Infinity’s ship Armada 7808 with a dual AUV configuration and supported by Armada 7806 (15m 11s):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ODUFX33kVU
@All,
Ocean Infinity’s ships Armada 7806 and Armada 7808 at their rendezvous in Port Louis Mauritius Terminal II Quay 2 on 5th February 2025:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/cxtwo9qmje22n4esfbncz/Ocean-Infinity-Rendezvous-in-Mauritius-Published.JPG?rlkey=ayn9hcvugicp6cvw9h0lcakiw&dl=0
Armada 7808 this morning on 6th February 2025 moved to Terminal I Quay E for refuelling:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/koc475ob0zvlawbnw1015/Armada-7808-Published.JPG?rlkey=0ecn4t1pw02um0mz3jrv15vh7&dl=0
Armada 7808 is equipped with 2 AUVs, crane and davits designed for search operations:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/bsn9qxskiuudj20zyzu5o/Armada-7808-Close-up-Published.JPG?rlkey=weuh44zrpa4ezqu1h35v8b3l3&dl=0
Armada 7806 is equipped with a gantry over a moon pool in the deck and is capable of handling a ROV for wreckage filming, recovery and salvage operations:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wkv0g4xo56j1e8jzt4wi8/Armada-7806-Published.png?rlkey=x029ycxz1bpajsvuppx8nuluj&dl=0
Armada 7806 had a blue container loaded this morning:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/y1b0rih67vn20cibdedj4/Armada-7606-in-Port-Louis-Loading-Published.png?rlkey=j5hz5r81g44wrmlpqacr5tgnf&dl=0
@Mikko,
I’m not disagreeing at all with your deduction.
Many thanks, but you appear to have a number of doubts or questions.
I tried finding the information about 78 08 departing on 7th of February (or was it 8th of February?).
The information can be found in my comment yesterday:
https://www.mh370search.com/2024/05/05/new-search/comment-page-4/#comment-3331
I published the date of 7th February, with backing evidence.
The information can be found at the following link. There is an official berthing plan until 7th February for Armada 7808, but not after that date:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/50iahkpqow9fc8dz7p8qv/Port-Louis-Berthing-Plan-Armada-7806-and-7808.png?rlkey=2h6fm2ytipzjgmez2z6g9t3mi&dl=0
I’m also confused about the claim that OI would search even without a contract.
Either OI are hoping an agreement will happen soon or they are going to search anyway without an agreement.
Why would they do that? They get no compensation even if the wreckage is found.
Maybe Ocean Infinity’s integrity is more important to them than $70M in compensation.
Also how can we be sure that 78 08 is heading for the search area?
Ocean Infinity are dedicated to finding MH370. Oliver Plunkett has said finding MH370 is “unfinished business” for Ocean Infinity. He has also said finding MH370 is “one of his life’s ambitions”.
Because there’s no public statement being made would it be possible that 78 08 is heading for other assignment?
There have been a number of public statements from both Ocean Infinity and the Malaysian government.
If Armada 7808 is heading for another assignment, why voyage from Singapore to Cape Town, via Mauritius and then turn around via Mossel Bay back to Mauritius, to then go to another assignment. Surely you would go directly to the other assignment’s location and not back track over the Indian Ocean for 2,300 nmi.
I’m excited that the search would finally be started again but I don’t want to raise false expectations.
I do not believe you are raising false expectations.
@All,
The Ocean Infinity Armada 78 Fleet Specification states: “It has a removable aft bulwark enabling over the stern deployment of the Ocean Infinity AUV fleet.”
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lu7uv1cbjat9bg64wbngy/Ocean-Infinity-Armada-78-Specification-2023.pdf?rlkey=4fhn8mkv5ctn53zgsvm2qn3wt&dl=0
The specification states: “ROVs: Saab Seaeye Leopard ROV, Schilling HD WROV, Saab eWROV”
The specification states: “AUVs: Hugin 3000/6000”.
Here is a picture of Armada 7808 underway, where you can clearly see the container housing the AUVs at the stern of the boat.
Armada 7808 is scheduled to depart for the MH370 search area later today 7th February 2025.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/oexh9cevnpevecsxrb3fm/Armada-7808-Underway-Published.png?rlkey=r7ztkit56diuj2hwwyjpfh8c3&dl=0
As previously mentioned, the Armada 7806 has a ROV Launch and Recovery System over a moon pool. It is possible that Armada 7806 will follow Armada 7808 to the MH370 search area at a later date to assist with investigating any AUV sonar detections of interest using a ROV.
The containers shown on your image of Armada 78 08 as the vessel conducted sea trials from Vard, Vung Tau, were pictured on all Armada 78s as they conducted sea trials.
They are not containerized AUV operating hangars.
Those particular containers provided accommodation, catering, and workshop facilities for the Vard workers engaged on the trails.
Armada 78 08 is now broadcasting an ETA of Feb 18th, 1700UTC, for Cape Town. Is another detour necessary before the voyage east?
@Tex Howe,
Welcome to the blog!
Many thanks for your correction!
In answer to your question: “Is another detour necessary before the voyage east?”
I can only say that it appears strange that Armada 7808 went from Port Louis to Cape Town, then back to Port Louis, and now back to Cape Town.
Armada 7808 appears to Have its destination set as Cape Town, why is this?
@Jesse Tulloch,
You are correct. The current destination is Cape Town with the ETA now updated to 18th February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
It appears that I was wrong about Armada 7808 going to the MH370 search area.
Probably best to limit our worries & expectations until departure. We’ll soon see the result at midday.
78 08 is obviously loading for a BIG operation. So the devil is in the detail.
@Will,
Armada 7808 is currently heading South West on a course of 242.6° at 9.4 knots.
Is there any hope that this is a random destination so that something stands at the destination? And taking into account the distance, the arrival time is automatically entered. If the OI had a different mission, then Armada 78 06 should have arrived in South Africa in the wake of 78 08, rather than forcing 78 08 to waste fuel and return in the opposite direction from their destination, if it is not MH370
@Edward,
The AIS voyage data are manual inputs, whereas the position data are automated updates.
There is no reason to believe that the voyage data is incorrect.
I agree that it appears strange that Armada 7808 went from Port Louis to Cape Town, then back to Port Louis, and now back to Cape Town.
@Richard
I think we should be very careful about the claims regargding the search starting again. I think that next of kin are also reading this website. I was becaming very confident that 78 08 would indeed head for the search area.
The movements of 78 08 are very strange. But could reason be that they need More supplies or something of that nature? This is perplexing!
@Mikko,
We won’t know what Ocean infinity is up to for sure, until Armada 7806 heads out tomorrow evening.
By then, we will know whether Armada 7808 maintains its course, and what course Armada 7806 is on.
Armada 78 08 has left Port Louis and is now some distance away. My course marker is frozen at 93 degrees (last updated 2 hours ago). I liked that: they can circle Mauritius from the north and follow approximately the same course to the east. So Richard, we’re really looking forward to the updates.
@Edward,
Armada 7808 went dark for 91 minutes between 15:06 UTC and 16:37 UTC today.
It sat at a standstill during that time, just outside the 12 nmi line in international waters.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/z9hqlvrvqummcouruhaof/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-07FEB2025-1810-UTC.png?rlkey=p09kb453y4irqhijybax4fmqh&dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p74e2ljvjmgsu3ynsi80m/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-07FEB2025-1505-UTC.png?rlkey=q8k9c30e8szxtljvqxchcemjk&dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mbt7k2bljopgz3wzs6olt/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-07FEB2025-1637-UTC.png?rlkey=xnbxvoap7bh4co6frav7t1s99&dl=0
Your remark that Armada 7808 went dark for 91 minutes between 15:06 UTC and 16:37 UTC today.
Via Marine Traffic, the vessel’s movement was continually updated during this period.
@Tex Howe,
Were those updates estimates or AIS transmissions? I track AIS transmissions and did not see any for 91 minutes.
No, not estimates.
Between 15:45 and 16:15 the vessel gradually rotated 180º while its position simultaneously translated a few meters, W-E.
@Tex Howe,
Many thanks for the information.
I presume your source is Marine Traffic.
I use Vessel Finder and on closer examination I only found two satellite AIS data points between 15:05 UTC and 16:26 UTC.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/72qpo4785tdimazmb0a8x/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-07FEB2025-1505-UTC-Data-Point.png?rlkey=42tmuqh19vc1ux8u66lw96x3d&dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8x54ajdmrgq1m3sbq0hqx/Armada-7808-Vessel-Finder-07FEB2025-1626-UTC-Data-Point.png?rlkey=9ix9nfud6jpk95bo52bvbzlzk&dl=0
Can you help me, by providing the satellite AIS data points between 15:05 UTC and 16:26 UTC please?
What do you think was the purpose of this manoeuvre, just inside international waters?
No idea how to save AIS data from the app.
I have uploaded a replay off the app, the track line is very detailed.
https://drive.proton.me/urls/6A0SDAWCTR#8m91UuzlD0kI
I can’t imagine the purpose of these movements, perhaps the information is useful to help your understanding.
@Tex Howe,
Many thanks! Your .mp4 video file is massively helpful.
Armada 7808 was stationary yesterday between 15:06:17 UTC and 16:37:39 UTC, except for a short time at 15:46 UTC where the ship remained at the same position but rotated clockwise 180° on its own axis. Marine Traffic still sends data when a ship is stationary. Vessel Finder stops sending position updates when a ship is stationary.
Quite clearly Armada 7808 had not gone dark, but was running a test of the ship’s positioning control system. This is required when the ship must maintain a position and orientation at a defined location such as a point of interest on the seabed floor at a great depth directly below.
According to the Mauritius Port Authority planning documents dated 7th February 2025, Armada 7808 was “awaiting spare parts”. Perhaps a repair was carried out, which required a test before moving on.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ovhlos4esm1v34u3s7df9/Armada-7806-and-7808-MPA-Plan-07FEB2025.png?rlkey=tpfa0omv585rxqvbmawr0v6bp&dl=0
According to the same plan, Armada 7806 was “idle” yesterday and is being refuelled today in preparation for departure. Armada 7806 moved to Terminal I Quay E last night in a change of plan previously published just below on 7th February at 21:00 CET.
@All,
The Mauritius Port Authority has updated the Berthing Plan to now show that Armada 7806 will move tomorrow morning Saturday 8th February 2025 to Terminal I Quay E for refuelling prior to departure.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/s8f4oo0surbk7ab1v8nyi/Port-Louis-Berthing-Plan-Armada-7806-and-7808-Updated-07FEB2025.png?rlkey=ob3l80dvz1ytevxt6ym65mdj6&dl=0
Is there any evidence that 78 08 is performing AUV / ROV testing?
It could account for the 91 minutes.
@Will,
It is possible, but I did not have any evidence.
@All,
The Ocean Infinity ships have covered a number of tasks in Port Louis, according to the Mauritius Port Authority (MPA) planning documents.
Armada 7806 arrived on 4th February and is expected to depart 8th February, having discharged and loaded containers at Terminal II Quay 2. In a change to the plan the vessel moved last night to Terminal I Quay E to be refuelled this morning before departure.
Armada 7808 arrived on 5th February and has already departed on 7th February, having loaded containers, provisions, fuel and ship’s spare parts.
The details can be found in this extract of the official MPA planning document:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ge7fsq097qax2vhe09h2q/Armada-7806-and-7808-Planning.png?rlkey=d6xyrz0dna6akhkfzm92c7yww&dl=0
Whilst in Port Louis, Mauritius the weather has changed dramatically with a moderate tropical storm called Faida with winds up to 80 km/h (50 mph) passing close to Mauritius, a very intense tropical cyclone called Vince with winds up to 240 km/h (149 mph) East of Mauritius and another category 1 tropical cyclone called Taliah with winds currently at 95 km/h (59 mph) further East in the Indian Ocean.
The tropical cyclones can be viewed at the following link, Vince is marked in red and Taliah is marked in green. If you click the date back to 5th February, you will see Faida marked in purple near Madagascar, having passed by Mauritius. If you hover with the mouse over the track, you can see the wind speeds at each point along the track. There are 3 other cyclones developing in the Indian Ocean currently.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=-22.7,75,3.91z/overlays=radar,wind,fires,crosshair
The tropical cyclones Vince and Talliah currently prevent Armada 7808 or Armada 7806 from going to the search area or back to Singapore.
Ocean Infinity have no choice at the moment, other than to ensure their ships are safe.
Stella information presented!
I understand that 78 08 was designated.
Perhaps 78 06 was scheduled to double back and search AFTER errands for 78 08 were completed? 78 08’s turnaround seemed urgent enough.
78 06 seems a FREE HAND. And has since TAIWAN.
Cyclones are an understandable external factor.
78 06’s MOON POOL seems more than adept at handling MH370.
@All,
Armada 7806 is underway and leaving Port Louis, Mauritius on 8th February 2025 at 13:30 UTC for an offshore Mauritius destination:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ow9n1b20f9spbs4frqe8y/Armada-7806-Vessel-Finder-08FEB2025-1330-UTC.png?rlkey=zm9475yzlx5epwxtwfy3vkk9y&dl=0
@Richard
At least 78 06 is going to the right direction! What could offshore destination mean? Is 78 06 capable of carrying out the search? Even though 78 06 wasn’t the vessel that would do the search in the first place?
@Mikko,
Offshore Mauritius is the destination, where Armada 7806 will arrive shortly at 16:30 UTC. This could mean anything from testing new equipment to wreck hunting for treasure.
At the moment Armada 7806 is back tracking the way it voyaged to Mauritius from Singapore. However the weather along that route is looking nasty and they may have to make detours to stay safe. This is possible the reason for taking on extra fuel this morning.
In the Armada 78 specification, which I posted above on 7th February at 08:43 CET, you will see that all Armada 78 vessels can be configured for underwater search. For the MH370 search, key is that the AUV and ROV equipment on board is rated to a depth of 6000 m.
@All,
Armada 7806 is in the offshore testing area North of Mauritius just inside international waters:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/zj9fueqt75fizorf29xnj/Armada-7806-Vessel-Finder-09FEB2025-0805-UTC.png?rlkey=ecbn17g115xyhj718h0vjl978&dl=0
The waters are relatively shallow:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/od6j87z3x2oa9tsfasgo4/Mauritius-Chart.jpg?rlkey=holxdf37fkic4w3ixjfgj2qmx&dl=0
Armada 7806 has launched its fast boat to help in the recovery of an AUV:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/q0fd6ee3f7y3kioqr7lx2/AUV-Recovery-with-AUV-Recovery-Fast-Boat.png?rlkey=pd2on6yxqpodqvkspt62h6n4e&dl=0
You can see a second boat in the AIS satellite tracking (screen shot courtesy of our contributor Edward):
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/s9xzyr8aoeszq0j6uabmd/Armada-7806-with-AUV-Recovery-Fast-Boat-in-AIS.jpg?rlkey=spxm0e0q3pjtyixf8dyvobtpc&dl=0
@All,
Malaysia fails to sign MH370 search agreement.
The search for MH370 will not be taking place any time soon.
Three weeks ago I made the damning statement that Malaysia was possibly pulling out from the search for MH370. Back then I was saying the original search time frame was November 2024 to April 2025. Then it was updated to start in January 2025. Now we have February and still nothing has happened. It has now been confirmed that the new search will not be happening any time soon.
I must apologise for my speculation that Armada 7808 was about to start the new search for MH370. Ocean Infinity had two ships in Port Louis, Mauritius, Armada 7806 out of Singapore and Armada 7808 out of Cape Town. The rendezvous in Mauritius was well planned and both ships arrived just one day apart. According to the official plan, which I published on my website, Armada 7808 had a crew change, loaded equipment and ship’s spares, was fully provisioned and refuelled. I wrongly deduced that Armada 7808 was being prepared for a long voyage and a new search for MH370.
This is clearly not the case and Armada 7808 is now underway to Cape Town and not to the MH370 search area. Armada 7806 left Port Louis, Mauritius yesterday at 13:30 UTC with a destination described as “offshore Mauritius”. The ship followed almost exactly the reverse route of its arrival from Singapore for nearly 3 hours until 16:16 UTC. It then took a more Northerly route for 2 hours at a slower speed until it reached the offshore testing area, where it is still located today.
There are a number of tropical storms and cyclones in the Indian Ocean. We had storm Faida near Mauritius. An intense tropical cyclone Vince with winds up to 240 km/h or 150 mph a bit further East in the Indian Ocean. Then a category 3 tropical cyclone Taliah with 100 mph winds and several more storms brewing. Did the weather influence Ocean Infinity to change plans?
Ocean Infinity puts safety first, but there is more to this story, than meets the eye. Up until two weeks ago, Ocean Infinity believed that Malaysia would sign a contract and the search would start soon thereafter. Ocean Infinity had two Armada 78 ships prepared and on standby in Mauritius. This is unfinished business for Ocean Infinity and they want to find MH370.
The Malaysian Transport Minister, Anthony Loke, announced on 20th December 2024 that the Malaysian government had agreed in principle to a new search by Ocean Infinity. He said they just needed to finalise the terms and conditions. I understand from reliable sources close to the negotiations, that the terms were agreed in mid December prior to Anthony Loke’s announcement. A government lawyer just needed to approve the final agreement.
You may well ask, why hasn’t Malaysia signed a contract with Ocean Infinity? What has happened since Anthony Loke’s announcement at the end of December? The short answer is nothing. Ocean Infinity asked two weeks ago what is happening? Anthony Loke responded that they are still busy checking the contract. This is a no-risk contract. It can’t be that difficult.
I think there are powerful elements in Malaysia, who do not want a new search, Ocean Infinity are the right team to search for MH37ß. Geoffrey Thomas met Oliver Plunkett personally and says he is a professional with a business to run. Oliver has an ambition to find MH370. I find it extraordinary that Malaysia still haven’t signed a contract on a no find, no fee basis. Where is the risk for them?
I am concerned for the MH370 next of kin, who are seeing all this activity, but no progress. I can’t begin to imagine how they must be feeling. I have had a number of conversations and all they want is closure. The not knowing what happened to their loved ones is the most difficult part.
We have a number of sources close to the MH370 investigation and they are all telling the same story. The Malaysian authorities are sitting on their hands. Ocean Infinity have reached the end of their patience and we will likely not be seeing a search for MH370 this year. I am told that Ocean Infinity see a less than 20% chance that there will be a new search for MH370 this year.
After almost a year of proposals, presentations and negotiations, I find this situation outrageous. It begs the question, what do the Malaysian authorities have to hide? At this rate we may never know the answer to that question.
@Richard
This is so sad. I think only solution is that the search is done without Malaysias approval. They had their chance. Is your billionare friend willing to plan a search that would take place Nov. 25 – March 26?
@Mikko,
My friend is watching events closely,
Of course, it is theoretically possible that OI may decide to search without an agreement, but up until now, they have always made it clear that they will only search with an agreement.
If Malaysia does sign, before the OI offer expires, then OI have an exclusivity for 18 months. No other search company will want to be searching in the Indian Ocean at the same time as OI.
@All,
A news release by Geoffrey Thomas on Airline News:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_r3DdufLDw
The news release is titled: “MH370 Search, Disappointing & Bizarre Twist”.
@All,
Geoffrey Thomas and I discuss the latest news that Malaysia fails to sign MH370 search agreement:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWDqe4RuEIE
The obvious thing is that the 8-March-2025 is the 11th anniversary, and we will presumably get an official update from OI and/or Malaysia and/or NoK. So far to my knowledge (via online FB post several weeks ago) NoK leaders have been encouraged that a new search will be progressed as promised. If I start hearing NoK leaders saying they are discouraged, then that would be important.
@TBill,
As you point out, the 11th anniversary on Saturday 8th March 20205 is only 25 days away.
What will Anthony Loke, Oliver Plunkett and the NOK say at that event, nothing, more bullshit or the truth.
Richard,
Just imagine –
If today a billionaire would sign an agreement with OI ( because the Malaysian government refuse/delay the search operation)
OI would proceed to the specific search areas and in a short period of time, OI finds the underwater MH370 wreckage.
Suddenly, there would be underwater video images leak ( with the Malaysian Airlines logo) to the international media.
If the above scenarios happen, it is embarrassing to the Malaysian government…
@Jafni,
OI has plenty of financial backing, that is not the issue.
OI have always been clear that they want compensation of $70M, if they find MH370.
One day, MH370 will be found.
The Malaysians obviously believe that there is a serious chance the aircraft will be found this time around hence their non cooperation and stalling to make sure the window closes for a search this year. To quote GT; they’re a disgrace. They know what happened onboard that aircraft and in truth, so do we. However, having it proved is another thing…
@Louis,
I agree with you, the Malaysians are convinced that, if OI searched again, the search would likely be successful.
Hi Richard,
Been a long-time follower of your posts, and I have to share your sentiment that Malaysia’s inaction on this matter is truly outrageous. Incredibly suspicious, one could suggest.
Do we think an official announcement will be made, either by Ocean Infinity or the Malaysian authorities? Considering this ‘new search’ was announced and made global headlines only a few short months prior?
Is there a likelihood of a generous benefactor, or even Ocean Infinity themselves, taking on board the risk themselves and simply pursuing the search for MH370 without Malaysian involvement?
On a brief side note – thank you for all of your work and for keeping this community updated with the case of MH370. This needs to obtain global attention once again. Perhaps such pressure would finally force the Malaysian government into complying with its international obligation to search for and partake in the investigation of aircraft incidents.
@Sam,
Welcome to the blog and thank you for the kind words!
It is a good question, whether there will be any official announcement.
With the 11th anniversary of the disappearance coming up, the media will start asking questions as to when a new search for MH370 will start?
By 8th March 2025, the current search season will be almost over.
The fact is, that at the moment there are no Ocean Infinity ships going to the MH370 search area and no announcement by Malaysia or Ocean Infinity, that an agreement has been signed and a new search will start imminently.
We are told that Ocean Infinity sees a less than 20% chance, that there will be a new search for MH370 this year.
We are also told that OI will not search without an agreement with Malaysia.
If OI do not search, then there are others who want to search, without agreement and without compensation, if they find MH370. I know of one other party, that are watching events in the Indian Ocean closely at the moment.
@All,
Armada 7806 is still in the test area North of Mauritius, just inside international waters, but in an area where the depths are around 600 m (between 560 m and 700 m).
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/s8c3xr766ggtnthcuskyz/Armada-7806-Vessel-Finder-10FEB2025-0956-UTC.png?rlkey=xp1hra3na57lq3rk5cs56kzo3&dl=0
The cursor point in the centre of the chart at 19.619713°S 57.586158°E (marked with a black circle and cross wire) in the attached extract from a nautical chart is at a depth of 600 m.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/78k2wroeh2lxq70135yjd/Admiralty-Chart-Mauritius-09FEB2025-Extract.png?rlkey=k450s3v83t3fjkv1d4n4mj47p&dl=0
A reminder that the crash location of MH370 at 29.128°S 99.934°E is at a depth of 3,750 m.
@Richard
I would think that testing of AUVs is for some purpose. Of cource OI is the only one that knows what’s going on.
It’s shocking that no news media is aaking the question we have been asking. What Malaysia is hiding? Would it be possible for you as you have been interviewed several times to gave a hint for news medias about the situation? That way there could be an increase of pressure towards the authorities in Malaysia.
@Mikko,
We sent out a press release yesterday and several main stream media in UK, France, Switzerland, Australia and the US have responded already.
They are asking the right questions. We have given them our answers and they are verifying with our sources.
@Richard
Good to hear! Hopefully it will yield results!
@All,
An article by the former Chief Pilot of Malaysian Airlines Captain Nik Huzlan, where he says that WSPR is the best possibility to find MH370:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/t9qr4ftyofk27bonpttuk/Nik-Huzlan-Twentytwo13news.png?rlkey=g49yf8298lqlaip1hqj0idn0y&dl=0
“Retired airline pilot Capt Datuk Nik Ahmad Huzlan Nik Hussain, with more than 13,000 flight hours under his belt, believes that former aerospace engineer Richard Godfrey’s work offers the best possibility of finding the missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370.”
The full article can be found at the following link:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/fpl0o90zsoqhx8vv3ue3x/Nik-Huzlan-Article.pdf?rlkey=vops89fjbn9hxqudpo5aiwurs&dl=0
“Third search for MH370: Is this the best bet of solving this decade-old mystery?”
@All,
A new article in watson titled: “Disaster flight MH370: Instead of a new search, there is a bad suspicion“.
“The search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 should actually be underway again. But the relatives have to be patient. An independent expert comments.”
A link to the original article for our German speaking readers:
https://www.watson.ch/digital/international/436214635-mh370-statt-einer-neuen-wrack-suche-im-meer-gibts-einen-boesen-verdacht
A link to an English translation for our English speaking readers:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/93inih7ncjxyxb56ohbb5/watson-Article-in-English.pdf?rlkey=c2uxwj51loynfrtl8f8p0qcs2&dl=0
@Richard
Regarding the following statement in the Watson article:
“The international media have so far failed to put pressure on the Malaysian government. This is probably one of the reasons why the search is not making any progress.”
Did they get that from your press release, or have they deduced it themselves?
Either way, it’s good that they’ve made this point. Hopefully other media will pick up on it and react accordingly.
@Duncan,
Here is a link to our press release on 9th February 2025:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ncjs5enx703vnqc597v4z/Press-Release-Malaysia-Fails-To-Sign-MH370-Search-Agreement-9th-February-2025.pdf?rlkey=q19mvxrpminn8hsx0rz8sugyb&dl=0
The statement you quote from the Watson article was their own, but based on an interview with me where I stated the international media need to put pressure on Malaysia to sign an agreement with Ocean Infinity.
@All,
An article in Lines about Times:
https://linesabouttimes.wordpress.com/2025/02/11/mh370-flogging-a-dead-cause/
“MH370: Flogging a Dead Cause?”
“After Dec ’24’s headline grabbing announcement regarding another search effort to find Mh370, Malaysia has gone silent. What should one make of this?”
Richard,
Is it possible the Malaysia government would want to negotiate and reduce the USD 70m fee with OI?
The Malaysian government must now realize, it is no longer time consuming/difficult for OI to find the location of MH370 because of your WSPR and other experts research.
Nik Huzlan’s article mentioned the estimated daily cost of OI’s operations.
If OI does find MH370 within just a few days of work, the USD 70m is quite expensive.
Unless of course the USD 70m fee is inclusive of recovering the MH370 black box and data recorder..
@Jafni,
I understand that all the terms and conditions in the contract were agreed prior to Minister Anthony Loke’s announcement on 20th December 2024.
Nik Huzlan says his estimate of $330K per day is “based on my uneducated guess”.
Are you counting the cost of Ocean Infinity’s 2018 search following the agreement with Malaysia dated 10th January 2018, which started in the search area on 22nd January 2018 and continued until 7th June 2018. That is 138 days plus the time to get to the search area and back.
OI are now looking at 3 areas, with a further estimated 15 days:
(a) WSPR area at 29.128°S.
(b) UGIB area at 34.234°S.
(c) Blelly/Marchand area at 35.5°S.
@Richard Godfrey
Isn’t the situation with 7806 still kind of unresolved? I agree about the general point you’ve made about the Malaysians, but with the 7806 still out there, I don’t see how the prospect of a search is that much different from a week ago. What you said about 7808 still kind of applies to 7806, no?
I at least thought (and continue to think) that the new information about ship movements was so strongly suggesting upcoming search activity that it could outweigh the fundamental issue of Malaysian reluctance that speaks against a search. I’m not saying that the probability of a search is above 50% now, but until 7806 departs elsewhere, I don’t think it’s close to zero like it seemed 2 weeks ago.
@Puuhöylä,
I agree with you that the situation is unresolved.
The difference from a week ago is the confirmation from Ocean Infinity meanwhile that they now believe: “the chances of a search this year to be less than 20%”.
The difference between Armada 7808 is “fully provisioned” and “crew change” and “fully fuelled”, whereas Armada 7806 was just “fully fuelled”.
The statement from Ocean infinity was up until now: “we will only search with the agreement of the Malaysian authorities”.
Of course, Ocean Infinity are perfectly entitled to change their mind.
@All,
Armada 7804 has just arrived in Southampton, UK after a long voyage from Singapore via Cape Town:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/acmt10a5cln0jenr3rnzv/Armada-7804-Vessel-Finder-12FEB2025-1006-UTC.png?rlkey=yflyld9t6rskc3go28cpz9329&dl=0
Southampton, UK hosts one of the Ocean Infinity Remote Control Centres (RCCs):
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/6crk2263xir4k90avemcg/Ocean-Infinity-Southampton-Centre.png?rlkey=jivl11i6m46z1ay2ngdujt1er&dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0eg989z2aqoapvgt22vhn/Ocean-Infinity-Southampton-RCC.png?rlkey=xyla9z9xxrr3ze4rjewbe75w0&dl=0
RCCs are already operational in the UK, Sweden and recently in Hobart, Australia.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/looshs1yho1z8hnx8rv1u/Ocean-Infinity-Hobart-Australia-RCC.png?rlkey=glo760kkuw1rnt2tngeejbhro&dl=0
The Australian Operations Centre is only the latest step in a worldwide roll-out, with centres planned for Singapore and another Asian location yet to be announced.
According to the vessel tracker, Armada 7806 is north of Mauritius going back and forth. Could this be the search vessel for MH 370 instead of 7808? I have some hopes given it seems to follow the pattern of AUV testing as some have speculated.
I’m no big wig executive, but it seems pretty wasteful if a company like Ocean Infinity was doing test runs north of Mauritius for seemingly no reason. I have hopes that 7806 is the designated vessel, and that the search is actually underway.
@Muhamad S.,
Armada 7806 is still in the test area North of Mauritius, just inside international waters, but in an area where the depths are around 600 m (between 560 m and 700 m). Armada 7806 is clearly doing operational sea trials and testing how best to launch and recover the AUVs in different sea states.
In the previous Ocean Infinity search in 2018, Seabed Constructor stopped for 3 days after leaving Durban on the way to the search area. Seabed Constructor was at 37.2813°S 36.7921°E between 6th – 9th January 2018, where the depth is 5,204 m (17,074 feet).
The Hugin 6000 AUVs are rated to a depth of 6,000 m, which is essential for the MH370 search.
Ocean Infinity had certainly planned to do this AUV testing now in 2025, whilst they are close to Mauritius. They are certainly not wasteful and doing test runs for no reason. Ocean Infinity are clearly keeping Armada 7806 on standby in the Indian Ocean area in a state of readiness.
@Muhamad
If I could I would give your post thumbs up. My thoughts exactly. Why doing test runs if the plan is not to search this year.
I really hope that the news medias will put enormous pressure against Malaysia to force them sign a contract as soon as possible.
Do next of kin have any kind of spokeman or something like that who would want to make an appeal to Malaysia?
@Mikko,
To give a thumbs up, just press Reply and enter @Muhamad S. 👍
The MH370 Families have a Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/MH370Families
The MH370 Families issue press releases from time to time and list the following media contacts with telephone number and email address:
1. Grace S Nathan (Malaysia)
2. KS Narendran (India)
3. Ghyslain Wattrelos (France)
4. Jiang Hui (China) (Mandarin)
5. Jenninfer Chong (Australia)
6. Danica Weeks (Australia)
K S Narendran has a website “Lines About Times”. You will find a recent article in the comment above on 11th February 2025 at 12:59 CET:
https://www.mh370search.com/2024/05/05/new-search/comment-page-4/#comment-3407
@Muhamad S. 👍